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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Investor2 who wrote (803)	3/18/2001 7:40:23 PM
From: marc ultra	Respond to of 10065

I2 re "How does one tell the difference between a CTR and the first leg up of the next bull market? The way I've been deciding til now is by reading my marketimer. Not just loyalty but I think it may give one of the better perspectives balancing issues like direction of the economy, money supply, sentiment, inflation etc. that may set the table for a bull. re "How would it feel to sell one's QQQ's in the low 50's, only to see the share price keep going up through a full bull market, maybe never returning to the current prices? Unhappy. I'm hoping to get within spitting distance of 70 or get the word from Bob before dumping my QQQ equivalents. The current short term indicators screaming rally are about as extreme as I've seen them. Daily equity P/C Friday was 1.08. VIX finished at over 35. I think the 5 day P/C average is .98. I don't think I need to find a bunch of indicators to say we're grossly oversold. I'll worry about discerning a new bull from CTR top if we ever go up for a few days Marc

To: Investor2 who wrote (803)	3/18/2001 8:06:40 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

I2 1. How does one tell the difference between a CTR and the first leg up of the next bull market? 2. How would it feel to sell one's QQQ's in the low 50's, only to see the share price keep going up through a full bull market, maybe never returning to the current prices? Excellent questions. Further, how confident are we that in light of what has taken place Bob's next call on this will be correct after a few Brinker Clinker Stinkers this year? Which may be a reason to ride this out if you are invested.

To: Investor2 who wrote (803)	3/18/2001 10:56:10 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

i2, that's a good question. i just read something that sounds appropo to this discussion. its from a trader and goes something like this: "seize every opportunity to let your profits run, but run like a jackrabbit when adversity comes." things do not need to be an all or none proposition. that's how i personally got burned on this ctbm rally call. i went in full steam ahead, instead of reasonably building a position. i wish i would have run like a jackrabbit when adversity struck, but i didn't know what i believe i understand now. the reason i say what i believe i think i know now, is until i practice this with real dollars my talk is cheap. its like having an imaginary portfolio. much easier than managing your own real dollars. so as "chick hearn" of the lakers says, its now pressure cooker time and we'll see if i can perform in the clutch.

To: Investor2 who wrote (803)	3/19/2001 12:38:32 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

*Re: "How does one tell the difference between a CTR and the first leg up of the next bull market?"* Now that's a good question. If we get a rally, and Bob issues a sell recommendation, we have to decide whether to sell or not. If that happens, I'm going to want to see some real good 'splainin' as to why his model is still bearish, in order to help me make that decision. If the "Five Root Causes of a Bear Market" are tight money, rising interest rates, high inflation, rapid economic growth, and overvaluation (high P/E), it looks to me like at least four out of the five are not a problem any more, which begs the question, why would the model still be bearish? I hope Bob will discuss what he looks for in identifying the end of a bear market. BTW, I really liked yesterday's broadcast! (I still have to listen to my tape from today.)