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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KymarFye who wrote (72647)	3/18/2001 9:59:25 PM
From: gfs_1999	Respond to of 99985

KymarFye, IMO your view are 100% right, I was looking my charts this weekend and saw a lot of H&S patterns, my semilog long trend lines all were broken, But INDU could bounce back now due 1994-2001 trend line (no semilog) and Nasdaq Comp can hold at 1750. Last chance ! I'm still optimist if Dow hold 9571 intraday and don't close under 9654. Hmmm Abby Cohen is talking at Bloomberg!! Regards GFS

To: KymarFye who wrote (72647)	3/18/2001 10:53:33 PM
From: George Martin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

<<Am beginning to think that the markets - all of the markets, including commodities and foreign markets as well as the Dow, the SnP, the NYSE, the Nasdaq, and the brokerages, and everything else - might now have the economy held hostage, and may force the Fed's hand>> Thanks for excellent post highlighting the cascading domino effect already set in motion. Seems obvious but so many people ignore that 1) consumer spending is 2/3 of GDP -- wanna bet we won't see some very significant pullback, not based on last month's consumer sentiment but today's reality ? 2) stock equity position -- wealth effect -- has 4X the effect on consumer spending that income does; 3) also, TODAY over 50 % of US families have stock market exposure -- 1980 that was I believe around 10 %. Ignore the loss of 5 trillion in equity value in less than a year and the consequences may be some of the perils you mentioned. This is where I feel Greenspan really missed the boat. He seems to have the mentality -- "So what if we killed the patient, the operation was a success." I thought the whole point of FOMC activity was to provide some reasonable predictability in cap market transitions. After 6 hikes in 11 months ending in May 2000 and then needing dramatic reductions 6 + months later -- it's a total no-brainer to say the FED over shot its mark. But then, as per AG Congressional testimony, being Fed Chairman means never having to say you're sorry !!!