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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Poet who wrote (34860)	3/19/2001 5:50:37 AM
From: Clappy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 35685

Hi Poet. Hope all is well. I sure wish I was better prepared for this tumble... It sucks watching my stocks sink further and further each day. I'm hoping to get a good bounce so that I can better position myself, but something tells me that they aren't going to allow us to come up for air so quickly. One positive note that I heard from Elaine Garzarelli is that the average length of the eight post World War II recessions was approximately 11months. Usually the S&P 500 bottoms 5-6 months before the end of a recession. If we assume that the recession began in Oct 2000, and ends in Sept 2001, then the S&P 500 should bottom this month or next. I'm not quite sure why she would suggest that the recession began in Oct, 2000, because I was under the assumption a recession would officially begin after a few months of negative growth. Perhaps she is going by a different definition or going by market standards. Anyhow, I'm just looking for a few rays of hope... Good luck. -Clappy