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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical Analysis - Beginners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ronald P. Margraf Sr. who wrote (11710)	3/19/2001 4:15:52 AM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12039

Ron, I don't have the inclination to BS. Its a poor use of ones time. All my trading is based on technical trading. I execute many hundreds of orders a year. I rarely risk much more than 2 percent in a trade; occasionally as much as 6 or 7 percent if the trade potential warrants it. I have learned from past mistakes and moved on. My account is up year on year, as it has been ever since I started acknowledging past mistakes and correcting them. You mentioned, when you first started posting, that you suffered a sizable setback in your account over the past year, and I've been trying to get to the root reasons behind that. It seems through this slightly tortured process of discovery that risk management is a problem for you, yet when discussing stops and other basic risk management techniques, you insist that using these approaches would only limit your upside. Confuses me. And yes, I'm still smiling - never fear.

To: Ronald P. Margraf Sr. who wrote (11710)	3/19/2001 9:45:28 AM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

I told you, I don't know where MOT is going. Sure, I could guess, using all the junk in my TA toolbox, but I don't think you want guesses. Heck, I could even use Window On WallStreet (they were allowed to use "Windows" in the name at some point), if I cared to dust it off. You really want to know where MOT's going, and I just cannot predict the future, so I agree that for someone looking for that, it's all BS. You would seem to want certainties, I and just don't have any. Honestly, if I went to the oracle of Delphi, and they hedged with lots of mights and maybes, as I would about MOT, I'd want my money back. I'd say, "Give me back my goats, my drachmas, and I'm checking out right now. I'm heading back to Thebes. All I got out of that Sybil character was a lot of foaming at the mouth, at lot of gibberish, some arcane rhymes, etc. That oracle is nuts!" But if it's confirmation you want, if you need to be convinced of the wisdom of your own trade, maybe this will do it. An excellent analyst and trader said this over the weekend: "While I have very little faith in MOT as a company, it is a good trading stock and is set up for an Island Reversal....Morning Star... whatever you want to use. If it gaps up or down it would/could form a bullish formation."

To: Ronald P. Margraf Sr. who wrote (11710)	3/19/2001 11:21:50 AM
From: TechTrader42	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12039

"You see, the more you folks post, the more it becomes aparent that you folks are BSers." Ronald: Applies to my notes, certainly, but I wouldn't paint the whole thread with the same brush. Read the notes by Michael, Dick Brown, etc., on money management, etc. Not BS -- not by any means. Much wisdom in them, in fact. Any notes I could write on MOT would be unsatisfactory. They'd go something like this: If such and such, then maybe such and such, or if on the other hand such and such, then perhaps such and such, providing that such and such. Now while you don't use this particular indicator, I think it shows there's a possibility that such and such, if confirmed by this other indicator, which you might not use. However, if we look in this program at such and such, then there's a good chance of such and such, though the market could certainly take it in the exact opposite direction if such and such turns out to be true. I have a hunch we would have been of like minds on the probable direction of MOT, though. I'll say that much. Maybe not, but probably. That doesn't mean I think it'll go in that direction, because on the other hand, there's a possibility that ..... Bollinger bands might be a good place to start with that chart. Chris' MACD 13/34/5 (or something like that) might be another approach. So many indicators. What do they say about the future? My indicators end at 3/19/2001, unfortunately. I can't even extrapolate, because I haven't trapolated yet.