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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Metcalf who wrote (3133)	3/19/2001 9:49:06 AM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

John, One of the things I focus on on a macro level is to watch the impact of cuts in short-term rates on the longer-term bonds. If the long rates stop responding to cuts in the short rates, that tells me the Fed is out of ammunition. That hasn't happened yet, and I feel the short-term rate still has a fair way to fall. If rates do continue to fall, then after a few months people will get sick of earning 2% (or less) on their money and will cautiously make their way back to the market. Alternatively, that big hidden player in the market, the companies themselves, will re-enter and start buying back stock and acquiring other companies for cash. Japan is a scary example of how low interest rates do not always lead to a boom. I haven't ever looked at the Japanese pharma - are they highly leveraged as well? As for your disclaimer, your always-thoughtful posts indicate to me that there is a lot more than dumb luck to your biotech success. <g> Peter