To: Boca_PETE who wrote (818 ) 8/28/2001 1:14:43 PM From: Math Junkie Read Replies (4) | Respond to "On the radio locally in New York City (WMCA 570am) on the second Saturday of August 1982 at DOW 777, Bob went long-term bullish advising listeners to become fully invested. I heard it with my own ears. Started listening to Bob in October 1981 at 6AM. "nytimes.com Many bulls - while they concede that a sharp decline is likely - are acting on the longer-term assumption that a boom is coming on the other side. They are determined "to tough it out," said Robert J. Farrell, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Inc. at the bottom - on the same weekend when you heard Brinker make his bullish statement. So it's clear that we must beware of viewing any single indicator as a "must have" before a turning point can occur. I've lost count of how many posts I've seen where people say, in effect, that we MUST have capitulation before the bottom will be in.The most recent example of expectations betrayed has been the market's failure to react to declining interest rates. Throughout the spring and the first part of the summer, the prevailing wisdom was that once rates began to come down stock prices would shoot up. Short-term rates did begin to come down in late July, and since then yields on three-month Treasury bills have dropped to 9.35 percent from 12.5 percent. But the market has continued its slide.
