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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (820)	3/19/2001 10:09:17 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Mr. GJ: RE: ("is the long-term model really working if it called for 60% cash in what seemingly is one of the worst markets in recent times?" As I understand it, the "Long-Term Model" is either Bullish or bearish. Bob's advice in reaction to that is a matter of practicality. He said he thought it impractical to recommend 100% cash reserves. He told callers 60% was the minimum practical recommendation he could make, but that he could live with up to 100% cash reserves. This was his judgement for us to incorporate with all other input before acting or not acting on his recommendation. I believe the model has remained bearish since Jan 10, 2000. I see his short-term trading advice as separate from his long-term timing call - I think he does too, but you'd have to ask him that directly. I think the methodologies he uses for that short-term advice broke down last fall. Stats I've been keeping on NAZ internals since last summer show repeated text book test of NAZ lows with positive divergences that historically have been responded to by rallies. Instead, NAZ has drifted lower, we had a high volume leg down tantrum in response to the Dec 20 FOMC meeting failure to lower rates, continued text book tests with positive divergences and lower lows.... If a bear market is in fact the mirror image of a bull market, it seems to me that one should be seeing things and acting on observations in an opposite way that one sees things and acts upon observations in a bull market. - Thus gift horse pullbacks in a bull market to be bought at the bottom where undervaluation is at a maximum, become counter-trend rallies in a bear market to be sold short at the top where overvaluation is at a maximum. Bob successfully identified the NAZ 4200-4400 top area of CTR1. Had he followed this strategy, we'd all be sitting in the high alfalfa now instead at the bottom of the sea. Instead, Bob went against the overall down-trend of the market and his own long-term timing model be buying at the start of CTR1 with almost perfect timing. His success at that faked most of us out last October when we were sure he could do it again. FWIW, P

To: MrGreenJeans who wrote (820)	3/20/2001 6:42:38 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Mr. GJ: WAYNE ANGELL on CNBC today says we are in a "Capital Spending Growth Recession" where capital spending growth has gone from 15% per year to Zero. He sees this as ominous and dangerous for future economic growth. As for Angell's FOMC Meeting prediction, he now expects either: -a 75 basis point rate reduction - no future guidance, or -a 50 basis point reduction with guidance hinting at a future interim FOMC meeting reduction. He states that the FED needs to get the Federal Funds Rate down to 4% by May 15 (probably because he's scheduled vacation after that date?). P