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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (88816)	3/19/2001 10:04:06 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"probably setting up for a near term rally" Right now, it's all a waiting game on the size of the cut tomorrow. But agree we are making a lot of progress laying the foundation of a strong Bear Market rally. A lot more bearishness on on the various threads during the past few days than I've seen in a long time. So, from a contrarian standpoint, we're making excellent progress. It will be amusing to see the perma bulls shouting from the roof tops that the Bear Market is over as soon as we've rallied for a few days.(g) Wish forecasting the market were as easy as making that prediction, lol. Best regards Isopatch

To: MetalTrader who wrote (88816)	3/19/2001 10:59:12 AM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 95453

From John S. Herold herold.com GAS PRODUCERS SHOULD SHINE IN 2001 With 2000 being a blockbuster year in profitability for E&P companies, 2001 is shaping up to be even better, particularly for gas producers. Based on a sample of 35 companies contained in the forthcoming issue of the Herold Fourth Quarter and Year End 2000 Revenue and Earnings Review, the news is that the gas price exit rate for 2000 was approximately $4.80/Mcf, compared with $3.50/Mcf for the entire year 2000. If that news isn’t good enough, the average NYMEX gas price in 1Q/01 so far has averaged just over $6.40/MMbtu, nearly 2.5 times better than the $2.62/MMBtu realized in 1Q/00. And we have noted that some producers were very aggressive hedging gas production in the $6/Mmbtu range for 2001. This will make for huge positive earning comparisons for the first two quarters in 2001 for the unhedged and recently hedged gas players. The outlook for good future earnings comparisons for the crude producers is less favorable, but any action by OPEC to cut production could change that outlook. Crude realizations exited 2000 at roughly $27/bbl, compared with $25.50/bbl for all of 2000. So far in 2001, NYMEX crude oil has averaged just over $29/bbl, about 3% better than the $28.02/bbl recorded last year. For the industry overall, there is an additional bright spot: the outlook for oil and gas production is picking up. The 4Q/00 gas production exit rate of our sample increased by about 9% to 11.8/Bcf/d from the 10.9/Bcf/d in 2000. Crude production exited 4Q/00 at a rate of almost 1.5MMb/d, an 8.4% increase over the rate of 1.37MMb/d experienced in all of 2000. Even with the increased production levels, per unit lease operating expenses in 4Q/00 rose to $4.91/boe, about 9% more than the full year 2000 and 25% greater than 4Q/99 results. Herold is also expecting a strong increase in capital spending this year. Currently our estimate stands at around a 20% increase for 2001, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the increase is larger, as we are seeing a strong M&A market as exemplified by the Shell’s bid for Barrett Resources.