Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (3368)	3/19/2001 10:36:06 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

The NY Fed data was discount only; the Federal Reserve data only went back to 1954. I sent an email to the Federal Reserve site; maybe I'll hear back from them. Looking at that Dow chart, the only time cuts really didn't work was '29-32; '37 looks like one cut only. Do we have the equivalent today of 30% of all stock holdings on margin and two bank failures a day during boom times? The system isn't that weak today, but I could be wrong. Certainly there seems to be more venture capital out there than good ideas, so there's a lot of leverage there. I think the real question is what effect unprecedented public ownership of stock will have; that's the real wild card here. So far I'd have to say that the combination of a record drop in net worth (a statistic measured since 1945) and high personal debt is a worrisome combination. That needs to be addressed quickly, and could be something that rate cuts may not be that effective against, which supports your argument of increased risk. I think the real threat here is deflation, not inflation, which also supports your argument. How long will it take to work these problems out on their own? I don't know, but I think the technology inventory problem could resonate more broadly than many think, if it filters down to J6P via stock prices and decreased net worth. Just some Monday morning ramblings...