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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j333oyce who wrote (49375)	3/19/2001 10:53:31 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

In that bear market, it was the professional who panicked and the muchmaligned ''small investors'' who, to everyone's astonishment, moved in to buy at the bottom and to stem the decline. Wall Street likes to look on the public as naive and likely to be wrong most of the time. But the fact is that when it comes to the mysteries of the marketplace, the professionals can be as wrong as anybody. Thus, it is interesting to speculate what the public might do. From 1982. Very interesting.

To: j333oyce who wrote (49375)	3/19/2001 12:12:53 PM
From: michael97123	Respond to of 57584

joyce, Please finish the story. Was their capitulation or was that article when the market turned. Dont have time to do the research today but am curious as hell how it turned out. Mike

To: j333oyce who wrote (49375)	3/19/2001 1:17:29 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Respond to of 57584

Plus ça change... plus c'est la même chose Note the following historical chart bigcharts.com The NYT article basically was at the bottom!

To: j333oyce who wrote (49375)	3/19/2001 3:22:30 PM
From: shadowman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Some ways of looking at the market, however, suggest that it is on a par with the 1974 bottom. One yardstick is corporate earnings. When the Dow Jones industrials hit 577.60 in 1974, their price/earnings ratio was 5.8. Today, with the Dow 200 points higher, the P/E ratio is only 6.5. The S.& P. 400 industrials are lower than in 1974. Their P/E is currently 7, compared with 7.2 in 1974. Based on historical PE ratios...we've recently been way up...maybe the bottom won't be hit until we approach some of those historically low PE's? We've had some very strong and reasonably lengthy bull markets over the past 100 years. It's difficult to argue that the market in the 90's was not one of the frothiest. Each time we've had those unusually exuberant bulls, the aftermath has been painful. I'd love to see a healthy and reasonably quick recovery but my instincts and most of the historical data that I've read seem to question it.