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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bigja who wrote (130385)	3/19/2001 2:11:57 PM
From: john douglas	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 186894

I see Kumar's comments this morning as very constructive. First, if the Fed is listening, perhaps Kumar's opinion that "technology has entered a global recession" will shake them up a little. Their recent public comments (that the economy is slowing temporarily as we digest excess manufacturing inventory, but may still turn back up by 2H01) are IMO no more than posturing. Just as Alan Greenspan has in the past attempted to jawbone the market down, I suspect that now he is attempting to jawbone the market up. The more the market sends the message that the technology engine is indeed stalled, the more likely a 75bps cut tomorrow. And if INTC down from $75 to $25 in 6 months doesn't help send that message I don't know what will. And if we only get 50bps tomorrow, look for a subsequent 50bps intermeeting. Second, while Kumar always has something interesting to say, his published calls have not helped anyone make money. His downgrade from strong buy to buy, on September 5 '00, was perfectly timed, but a gutsier call would have been to downgrade from strong buy to hold; as we all know a sell rating is forbidden. Of course if you read the body language that a downgrade from strong buy to buy is Wall Street jargon for sell, then you have to decide not what Kumar said today, but what his body language said today. Maybe the body language today was this would be a good time for weak holders to book their losses, and strong buyers to go bottom fishing. All thoughts welcome. And don't forget that while Kumar does seem to have called turning points on the chart, he hasn't always called them right. On November 27 '00, he made positive comments suggesting that Europe's rebound would offset weakness in US and Asia. If you bought on the enthusiastic open that day at $45.44 your position has been underwater every day since. My overall take from Kumar is that Intel's current woes are more related to macro factors, than the maturing of the PC industry. So the question is not where is the next killer app to drive new PC sales, but do you believe a prolonged recession is unavoidable. They say it's darkest just before dawn. From where I sit it looks pretty dark out there right now. John