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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lynn Segal who wrote (32203)	3/19/2001 1:43:06 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Lynn: Thank you for your kind words... Yes AMD's flash is the wildcard in Y2001 with guesses for revenue growth by posters on this thread ranging from 30% growth to falling off a cliff...Personally, given AMD management guidance of 25% for flash, I'm guessing that will be closer to reality...AMD has the enviable position in this market, as far as I can ascertain, of operating primarily at the top end and with a fairly diserfied product line...Henc, management may be closer to the truth when they advise that they are almost sold out for Y2001 and that margins are protected to some (how much, I wouldn't know) by their contracts... Austin microprocessor is a bit of a question as well, but given the price/performance advantage over the competition, 15 million Y2001 Austin units should not be too surprising... Dresden looks like it will remain soldout for the duration of the year and ship 20 million units, even with a modest palomino family of products launch (personally I think it'll be much, much more than modest)... Current macro view from my vantage point is that revenues and profitability from additional 5 million Dresden units as Dressden ramp up reaches capacity by year end will more than offset any weakness associated with flash and/or Austin microprocessor production...Comapny guidance of $2.00 may turn out to look awfully conservative if the current "doom and gloom" evaporates over the summer!!!