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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (130397)	3/19/2001 4:26:01 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 186894

At the top, vacancy levels are low. Wait 3 months. Also, the whole Residential real estate market has be inflating since the elimination of cap gains tax a couple years on the sale of a house, coupled with the rise in the stock market. OTOH, unlike the fast stockmarket, RE undergoes a sequence that's much slower. Starting with denial. Then realization. Then the wolf effect where the buyers sit back and gloat and let it fall, then low ball. The whole process can take a year or more. Jim, You are speculating without the facts to back it up...not a smart thing to do in the real estate market. <g> I can tell you that when the real estate bubble burst in the early 90's, CA and more specifically, LA was right there going down with the stock market. There was very little lag between the two. And that's true now as well. The West Coast markets are worsening but the difference between now and ten years ago is that there is not the overbuilding in either the office or housing markets, and they are coming off very low vacancy rates. So, should we go into a recession, I think real estate will be much less effected than it was last time. There are never any guarantees. In any case, my point was that you are painting a very negative scenario when there is nothing to support that argument [yet]. ted