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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (1942)	3/19/2001 3:56:23 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

"Investment Strategies: Tactics and Tradeoffs" This is a great article, if anyone is interested. Razor investech.com

To: BigBull who wrote (1942)	3/19/2001 10:11:02 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Japanese and American Economies Bullsky: Thought you might enjoy this article from BUSINESS TOKYO. Razor "One the Right Track: The Japanese Economy is in Retreat -- But Not for Long" Kenneth S. Courtis BUSINESS TOKYO January There's a lot of talk that the sun is setting on Japan, that the country's financial difficulties are a sign that the economy has peaked and entered into a long-term decline. The rising chorus harkens back to the mid-1980's, when many predicted that Japan would soon be hollowed out and plagues with double-digit unemployment. Few international investors saw the business opportunities then, and few see them now... [CAPTION: "DOES AMERICA HAVE THE LEADERSHIP TO STEER IN A NEW DIRECTION?"]... Today's economic shakeout is set to trigger a new wave of mergers and acquisitions in the Japanese market. Some smaller size companies are going to be looking for partners. Many won't have funds to finance their international operations, while others may be forced into strategic alliances for their domestic business. Foreign companies that are attuned to this and have a well-considered strategy will have major opportunities to enter this market. Once this phase of transition is over, however, corporate Japan will quickly reverse course. Japanese firms will launch a new international-investment blitz, directing some $700 billing to $800 billion into foreign markets through the end of the decade. About 40% of the investment will go to North America, about 25% each to East Asia and Europe, and the rest to Siberia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. On the basis of this investment, Japanese firms will be producing upwards of a $1 trillion abroad [within the next 8 years]. As Japan moves aggressively to deal with its problems, and Europe embraces the opportunities opening up in Eastern Europe and [the former Soviet Union], America has been painfully slow to address the current economic realities. The greatest obstacle for the United States today is the debilitating effect of years of under-investment. Both the public and private sectors are as stretched today as at any time since the 1930s. Rather than being able to take advantage of the opportunities now available in Japan, the United States is cutting capital investment. This will make America's international competitive position still more problematic in years to come. In the long run, the issue is America's economic security. U.S. autonomy is predicated on control -- control of technology, control of production, control of investment. Can the world's only remaining superpower afford to have key technology and strategic decisions made elsewhere? The answer is no. Does America have the capacity and leadership to steer in a new direction? Does Japan have the strength and vision to see beyond its own particular interests? These are the issues that the current transition in Japan's domestic economy and this year's presidential elections now place at the top of the agenda. ----------- Kenneth S. Courtis is strategist and senior economist for Deutsche Bank Capital Markets (Asia) in Tokyo. He is also a visiting professor of Keio University and Tokyo University.