To: semi2000 who wrote (1120 ) 3/20/2001 12:25:52 PM From: All Mtn Ski Respond to of 1698 Light at the end of the tunnel?: Gartner sees stronger cellphone market than most (UPDATE: adds outlooks from mobile phone makers, detail) By Lucas van Grinsven, European technology correspondent LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - Market research firm Gartner Dataquest gave the mobile phone industry a fillip on Tuesday when it said it expected worldwide sales of 507 million cellphones in 2001, well over the industry's own expectations. The forecast comes two days before Europe's largest technology trade show, CeBIT, starts in Hanover, Germany, where investors will be anxiously looking for clues to where the technology industry is heading. Gartner's estimate, which means a 23 percent increase over the 412 million cellphones sold in 2000, comes in the wake of a series of downgraded expectations by the industry itself. Finland's Nokia , the world's largest cellphone maker, recently cut its forecast to 450-500 million units from 500-550 million units. Number two Motorola (NYSE:MOT - news) sees sales below 500 million from previous estimates of 525-575 million. Number three, Germany's Siemens , said last week that global handset sales could be less than 450 million units this year. Gartner acknowledged it held a relatively bullish view despite the U.S. economy having come to a grinding halt and mobile operators cutting back spending plans due to financing problems and falling profit margins. ``This is our reasoned view,'' said Gartner telecom analyst Peter Richardson. ``It's certainly not our best case scenario.'' He said the wireless industry warranted upbeat expectations, because the only soft market is in the United States. ``Europe is still pulling quite strongly and Asia is going like a train,'' he said. ASIA Gartner Dataquest, one of the leading technology research groups, said it expects Asia to become the largest market for mobile phones in 2001. Of the forecast 507 million phones, some 170 million will be sold in Asia, a rise of 31 percent over 2000. In Western Europe Gartner saw demand for 167 million cellphones, up 19 percent. North America will be the number three region, with shipments forecast to reach 90 million units, an 18 percent increase over 2000. Latin America will grow 17 percent, with sales expected to top 42 million units. The rest of Europe, Middle East and Africa is on track to have sales of 38.2 million units, up 23 percent. Gartner said its outlook is based on sales to end-users, excluding inventories, and also assumes that mobile phone makers will be able to meet demand. There was a real possibility that demand could not be met, despite the softer overall growth of the cellphone market. Some phones are in much higher demand than others: Nokia cannot build enough of its 3310 phones to satisfy customers, Richardson said. But the 507 million figure is conservative in that it contains no end-of-year boost through sales of new, faster GPRS phones, he added. Although the new GPRS network for ``always-on'' Internet phones is currently being rolled out in Europe and phone makers have high hopes it will boost Christmas sales for 2001, Gartner spoke to very few people expecting to use the new service. ``End users have hardly any visibility of GPRS. If you ask them about it, they'll look blankly,'' said Richardson. biz.yahoo.com