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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (95916)	3/19/2001 8:37:51 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

re: The great stall in telecom is a complete headfake as far as CDMA is concerned. Yes. But the question is, how long is the headfake going to last? Since I bought QCOM in 9-10/00, the story has solidified. In particular, the announcement of a delay in WCDMA in Europe gives CDMA2000 a big advantage, as far as the standards war. But, as QCOM's grip on 3G gets stronger, 3G looks like it's fading into the distance. The main thing I'm worried about is that the telecom buildout (of which 3G is just one part), was being built largely using borrowed money, and the credit spigot has been shut down. When Intel wants to build a new fab, they pay cash, so they don't care what condition the credit markets are in. But the capital spending of telecom service providers is largely debt-or-equity-financed. That's true for T, WCOM, FON, all the way down to the smallest CLEC. And even those companies with decent cash flow, have seen forward EPS expectations for 2001 and 2002 cut drastically. It looks to me like consumer spending is just starting to turn down, and it may be quite while before it bottoms. Late 2001, or sometime in 2002. In that environment, it looks highly likely to me that, just at the 3G buildout in Europe (WCDMA flavor) was delayed, the same delay might happen to the expected 3G buildout in N. America and E. Asia (WCDMA and CDMA2000 flavors). I'm seriously worried about the answer to the question: "who is going to pay for all this?"