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To: schrodingers_cat who wrote (120943)	3/19/2001 11:02:08 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

The NAS and S+P broke below the Dec/Jan lows on Feb 21. Do you think that the consumers stopped spending in reaction to new lows on the Nasdaq? I am not sure of the exact cause. The Dow started making new lows on Mar 12, and the market slide accelerated about the same time. Have you noticed any further impact from this? As a matter of fact, I saw improvement on Saturday and today. These last few days may be an anomoly due to the fact spring is kind of starting with warmer weather. I truly can't read into a few days of sales and traffic. I could read a trend for the first two weeks of March. I do believe by the end of this month we could detect a trend one way or another. I am thinking that if AG drops interest rates by 50 basis points or more, the consumer will be likely to buy again using their credit card with low interest rates. Candidly, I do not believe the average consumer follows what AG does so a cut will not be made known to them until they receive their next charge card billing statement. It has been clear that more and more of the average Americans are buying on credit card and not paying off the card but rather letting that ride. Once the holiday season was over and the consumer saw the amount of interest being charged on these higher balances, they slowed spending. I hear on TV that people's 401Ks fall in value and so they do not spend. I am not sure that is case meaning the fall in value stops the spending. I believe it is their confidence in keeping their job and having access to low interest rates. I would like to re-visit this at the end of the month to see if there is a trend.