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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (72789)	3/19/2001 11:12:18 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Right now he has no reason to press that acceleration pedal to the floor. <<< i disagree with that Zeev, now is the time to put the pedal to the floor to stem the tide of pessimism and give the markets some confidence.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (72789)	3/19/2001 11:18:25 PM
From: Stoctrash	Respond to of 99985

Very possible Zeev....BUT would you believe him?(the soft landing part) The other angle is: "Hell, we're in a earnings down cycle anyhow so why shoot your wad all at once. Lets see how bad the 2nd and 3rd rounds of earnings warnings go and throw them another .25 or .50 if it gets 'hairy' over the next few weeks." or better yet: "why throw the Japs (read large US bond holders) a bone since I've been telling them for years to get their 'sheet' together" ...so many angles...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (72789)	3/19/2001 11:32:28 PM
From: Mike M	Respond to of 99985

I agree with bobby... Before this puppy is over we may see fed funds at one percent ...The longer AG takes to get the yield curve back to normal the worse plight we will find our economy. Said with tongue in cheek, but we did spend 10 years at that rate from 37 to 47...

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (72789)	3/20/2001 9:14:21 AM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Purely from a market reaction, I question whether there is going to be much of a negative reaction at all to a 50 basis cut. Had we experienced a strong rally into the cut then sell on the news would be appropriate. My best guess would be a mild retrenchment (test) and surge forward. Too many folks are expecting a disappointed reaction from the FED easing. Hardly any are suggesting there is an appropriate easing that would satisfy the "market". We are overdo a "bear rally" and my guess is it is time for the bears to sweat a little. The FED is after all moving rates in the right direction. That is my story and I'm sticking to it all the way to 1650<g>.