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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris who wrote (3439)	3/20/2001 5:43:47 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 52237

MAR 20 INDEX UPDATE ---------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - borderline lower midrange SPX - lower midrange OEX - lower midrange NAZ - borderline midrange NDX - borderline midrnage VIX - 33.35, upper midrnage(inverse to market) VXN - 73.60, upper midrange(inverse to market) It didnt come easy but the overall market is now in the lower midrange, and as mentioned often, right before an important announcement, statistically my short-term technicals are in the midrange. In the mist of all the negativity, I feel strongly that the important issues to watch, concerning the NAZ/NDX, is how the SOX performs and the market internals. The SOX rallied nicely yesterday, and it should be mentioned that it produced a LOCAL HIGHER LOW, of course assuming that the rally continues. I realise that there is that ugly Head & Shoulders on the SOX which projects into the 200-300 region, but until the SOX breaks below 500, it still looks OK, at least for now. As has been the case for months the SOX has been a reliable leading indicator for the NAZ/NDX. A forthcoming issue is the semiconductor book-to-bill which will be reported on THUR. Not predicting, lets see how the SOX holds up to that report since some feel the BB may be negative. The NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-NEW LOWs improved nicely yesterday from about negative 350 to negative 250 yesterday. As bad as the negative 350 appears to be, it is still much better than the negative 900 readings of DEC. The NAZ/NDX is significantly lower in price than DEC, but the NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs is significantly better, so for now it is still diverging in a positive manner. I am suspecting that the NAZ/NDX is at or nearing a mid-term bottom, subject to a retest, and this retest could possibly set a slight lower low. As mentioned often, on moves greater than 7%, the probability is high that there will be a retest, but the retest could be as short as a few days or last weeks and even more than a month. I am suspecting that this possible forthcoming retest may not take that long, in light of the all the negativity in the market, unless the FOMC news is very good. Even in light of all the negativity, I am still expecting a significant rally, FIBONACCI type rebound, to start soon. Here are the FIBONACCI rebound levels again for the NDX based on the FEB peak of 2772 to FRI's lows of 1628: 38% - 2063 50% - 2200 62% - 2337 If this is a mid-term bottom, I am suspecting that this may just be only the end of PHASE 2 of the bear, which implies that there may be one more strong leg down in the future.