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Biotech / Medical : ABMD - Replacement Heart System -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (67)	3/22/2001 12:56:42 AM
From: fp_scientist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 147

Ken, I covered because I made a good 6 points in a few weeks. I think that biotech and med device stocks are bottoming and ABMD will soon rebound with them. I may be a bit early as usual ... and could be wrong too. Also, ABMD can skyrocket any time on low volume on any good news ... it is a very risky short. FWIW, I went long THOR yesterday at 7 1/2. That's a steal. It will double or triple in 12 to 18 months. JMHO, of course. Regards, fp

To: High-Tech East who wrote (67)	4/14/2001 3:37:10 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 147

... *the end of the beginning* ... THUMP THUMP ... THUMP THUMP ... from Barron's, April 16, 2000 by Andrew Bary ... (page MW5) ARTIFICIAL HEARTS COULD SOON GRAB the headlines for the first time in nearly two decades when patients receive a device developed by a little-known Massachusetts company, Abiomed. Abiomed has worked for two decades to develop an implantable artificial heart that aims to extend the lives of people with serious heart problems who would otherwise die. An estimated 100,000 people in the U.S. die each year because of heart failure. Only about 2,000 donor hearts become available annually, resulting in a large shortage. "There have been many failed attempts, but we think this one will work," says Kurt Kruger, an analyst at Banc of America Securities. The last effort came in 1982 when Barney Clark, a retired dentist, received the Jarvik artificial heart and then endured a highly publicized 112-day ordeal of medical problems before dying. If the coming clinical trials are successful, it could be a boon to Abiomed, whose shares trade at 16, giving the company a market value of $320 million. Abiomed has nearly $100 million in cash, roughly $5 per share. The stock has traded between 10 and 40 in the last 18 months. Abiomed has scheduled a press conference in Washington on Wednesday to provide some details about the coming clinical trials. The company reaffirmed Friday that the first implant will come by June 30, countering recent speculation of a delay that had depressed its stock. The news helped lift Abiomed by 4.75, or 40%, last week. With a large lead over the competition, Abiomed could control the artificial heart market for years and potentially become a takeover candidate for a large medical-device company if its grapefruit-sized, two-pound implantable heart proves successful. Even though technology has advanced considerably since the disastrous Jarvik experiment, there are doubts whether patients fitted with the Abiomed heart will survive, given the demands placed on the organ and potential problems like blood clots. The absence of significant competition in the artificial-heart market suggests that lage medical-device companies may view the challenges as insurmountable. The Abiomed heart is designed to allow patients to resume normal lives, although the company apparently doesn't want to get public hopes too high. Abiomed said one of the aims of its media-seminar this week is to set "realistic" expectations. In Abiomed's annual report, Chief Executive David Lederman cautioned that its heart is a "first-generation breakthrough technology" that may take time to become established, and that initial implants will go into "the sickest of patients." The quiet-running heart is powered by a battery pack that patients will attach to their waists. Power will be delivered without wires through the skin, reducing the risk of infection. The potential market is large. Abiomed is expected to initially charge $75,000 for the hearts should the trials work. That cost is expected to drop if production levels rise. Within five to seven years, there potentially potentially could be tens of thousands of patients getting Abiomed hearts costing $25,000 each, producing $500 million or more in annual revenues. This may be a dream scenario, however. A bullish Kruger, who has a price target of 45, sees around $75 million in artificial heart revenues by 2004. In its fiscal year that ended March 31, Abiomed is expected to have generated $22 million in revenues, entirely from a heart-pumping system used in hospitals. The company is expected to have lost around 50 cents a share in the just-ended year and a similar loss is expected in 2001. Given its modest cash burn rate, Abiomed has little need to raise new money. Abiomed is apt to get plenty of attention once the clinical trials begin, although the company and participating hospitals will do what they can to avoid a repeat of the intense media attention directed at Clark in 1982. Signs of success could prompt a surge in Abiomed stock. What's the downside? If the trials fail, the stock could fall 50%.