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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (3479)	3/20/2001 11:52:05 AM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52237

I see 50 bp today, initial disappointment, a retest or higher low, and then a rally. But all that is just speculation. I like what I see here; some strong signs of trend exhaustion. But now we need reversal. I've been saying for a long time that this isn't likely to end in a capitulation day; bear markets just don't end that way. The highest volume sell-off in the 1929-1932 bear market occurred on Oct. 29, 1929. Bear markets tend to grind on until they exhaust themselves. April may be tax time, but it's also IRA investment time. I'm thinking of throwing the maximum into IRA accounts here; am I really the only one? (gulp) So that could provide some boost for the market next month. I think the effect of the stock market sell-off doesn't hit Federal tax coffers until next year (just some speculation on my part): a lot of people sold winning stock holdings last year (I suspect), and also got hit with large mutual fund tax bills (some of the cap gains that losing mutual funds dished out last year were just obscene), so the budget surplus holds for this year. Next year, the losers that are being sold now will offset capital gains and make a mockery of the endless budget surplus projects. I could be wrong on that; looks like a lot of people were forced to sell blue chip holdings lately. Just some thoughts... An interesting article on corporate investments in Net ventures. Two thoughts: first, corporations tend to become VCs only at the top, so they're a contrarian indicator (and tend to get walloped for their efforts, so that's no surprise); and second, how many technology-for-stock deals were done by the likes of ORCL and CSCO, and when (and for how much) will those write-offs hit? A lot of them may have hit already, but I don't know. I'm sure a lot of dot-coms used now-worthless stock swaps to obtain routers, servers, software and the like. thestandard.com