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To: yard_man who wrote (82823)	3/20/2001 1:40:49 PM
From: JHP	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

i just came back from brazil and the dollar was 2 weeks ago 2.05reais to 1 dollar. last year 1 to 1. people smiled when i paid in dollars. this is happening everywhere.

To: yard_man who wrote (82823)	3/20/2001 4:43:03 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

my view is very simple: foreigners have too many dollars, be they private investors or central banks. the US represents 20% of global economic output, but the dollar comprises almost 60% of overseas foreign exchange reserves. this mismatch is just waiting for a spark to set a correction in motion. what will the spark be? i don't know...but clearly the rate differential and increasing economic performance differential with Europe favors a move back into the Euro eventually. look at a daily chart of the dollar index, with trend lines drawn...still looks to me like it has topped out ALREADY. oh, one possible reason for a flight out of the dollar would be the increasing perception that the merry pranksters have lost control....which it seems to me, they have.