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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Writer who wrote (90398)	3/20/2001 2:21:19 PM
From: PCSS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

20 on its WAY today Michael

To: Night Writer who wrote (90398)	3/24/2001 9:16:17 AM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Smartmoney: A Sign of Spring by: skeptically 03/24/01 09:10 am EST Msg: 225757 of 225757 **note the interactive chart where CPQ can be selected smartmoney.com A Sign of Spring for Semiconductors? By Monica Rivituso March 23, 2001 IT ONLY TAKES a spark to ignite a fire — especially in a parched landscape. The blaze can burn bright for days, kind of how the PC and semiconductor sectors got hot this week after Micron Technology (MU) provided the tinder. Late Wednesday, the memory-chip maker delivered a couple of pieces of encouraging news to analysts on a conference call ahead of its full second-quarter report next week. First, it said prices for dynamic random access memory chips, or DRAMs, were stabilizing, confirming reports that have been trickling out for the past couple of weeks from industry watchers. But perhaps more noteworthy were Micron's comments that it thinks the PC makers it sells to have burned through their DRAM supplies. That bit of news was the spark that chip-maker and PC stocks needed. (Remember that PCs still account for roughly half of all chip sales.) Since Wednesday, shares of Micron, Compaq Computer (CPQ) and Dell Computer (DELL) surged 16%, 14% and 12%, respectively, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 15%. The constant reports of bloated inventories and slack demand for PCs and chips had been sector downers for so long that it only took a whiff of good news to breathe some life into these stocks. "We've seen a rally here," says Needham & Co. analyst Dan Scovel. "And it's noteworthy because this is the first hint of good news we've really heard since October or November." Since DRAM prices have been falling for months now, any suggestion that they're stabilizing, or even improving in some select markets, is news, especially when it comes from one of the top memory-chip makers in the world. And there have been other anecdotal reports recently about improvements in motherboard and PC-component inventories. But before you break out the champagne and declare that the tech turnaround is at hand, remember that these are still relatively faint notes amid the mighty background roar of bad news. Lehman Brothers analyst Dan Niles, for one, isn't reading too much into Micron's comments. He points out that similar optimism about improving DRAM inventories and prices swirled around in January, pumping up chip stocks. Not long after, Intel (INTC) and PC makers lowered their estimates and the sector went back into the tank. While Niles figures the domestic PC market may well have stabilized, he says the real risk now is how things shake out overseas. There are signs that demand is weakening in Europe and Asia Pacific, and he expects every chip maker he follows to further lower estimates during their March quarterly reports. If the latest data from the chip-equipment industry show anything, it's that we aren't out of the woods yet. As expected, the industry's closely watched book-to-bill ratio (the amount of orders divided by the amount of shipments) further weakened, falling to 0.77 in February from 0.80 in January. "I think the PC industry, out of the three major end markets of wireless, networking and PCs, is definitely doing the best in terms of searching for a bottom and being pretty close. But I don't think you can say that the worst news is necessarily behind us yet," he says. "In the worst neighborhood around, PCs have the best house." Still, the slight improvement in the PC picture may be a good omen, since some analysts think that the PC industry will emerge from the inventory correction before others. .....more at link..... Posted as a reply to: Msg 225755 by Elwood_P_Dowd_1998