Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (2032)	3/20/2001 3:27:16 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Michael H - Re: Don't fight the Fed >> One note: the farther along in the easing cycle the more you want to be careful not to fight the FED. << Agree 100%, but we have yet to see the DOW crater and estimates get taken down accordingly. Still too much optimism. >> I don't buy into the notion that the FED doesn't have the tools to fight a recession. << What about a global recession? What about the fact that foreigners basically have far too much exposure to the dollar, t-bills and our equity markets. If they decide to sell or reduce their exposure there's nothing the Fed can do to stop the flood. >> I also think that they are very careful not to upset the balance in a single bold move. It wouldn't surprise me to see an intermeeting cut if the market stays weak over the next month or so. << Possibly, but the same thing was said about the previous meeting and the market continued to fall and we got no inter-meeting cut. All that said I have to remember not to be too negative so keep reminding me about the bullish points. You're right we could get some buyers step in here, but if we manage to bounce back to Nasdaq 2200+ there'll be some great shorting ops again imho.

To: The Ox who wrote (2032)	3/20/2001 3:54:50 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Michael, I think you are right in cautioning against fighting the fed at this juncture. Just as the fed erred by raising rates too far only to see the raises take hold more strongly than they wanted, they are fearful of cutting too far and too fast and seeing inflation take hold. The types of problems that we are seeing in the economy in terms of reduced demand are problems that the fed is very capable of correcting unless inflation gets out of control. The earnings season will be dismal but will the mrkt "buy" the bad news. I think there is a good chance it will unless the bad news is relatively worse than expected or unless energy problems gets worse and overcome the expectations of a pickup from the rate hike. Having said that (gg) I have also sold out of my large oracle bet for a measly 1/4 pt gain and feel lucky to be out. A little safety goes a long way in this type of mrkt. OT (if we have that here), I looked at the other oil threads and Big Dog's thread is a great read to go along with this one, and the Strictly Drilling thread is dismal in both content and tone. The two main posters are eaten up with resentment and bile and the level of the cult-like followers has deteriorated so that now there are only a few readable posters there. Ed PS, 1862 as I type. Is it time for another history lesson from Kodiak?