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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (72898)	3/20/2001 5:15:26 PM
From: jmootx	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

The tape and Fed cuts Hate to say it, but there has been only one time since 1912 that the Fed rate cuts had no effect on stopping the slide in equities: 1929-1932. NASDAQ down 64% with only the 1929-1932 Dow to compare to, and the risk of earnings stinking into 2002, looking like 1200 on COMPX and possibly 850 in a harsh recession. Hey 850 would only be an 83% decline, better than 90% that the thirties Dow declined. The average PE ratio on the NDX for those with earnings is still 50, growth average for 2002 is 115%, but as we know there has been little revision there. If the recession extends into 2002, then that PE of 50 is very vulnerable given earnings are weakening.

To: Wayners who wrote (72898)	3/20/2001 7:15:49 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

"When the tape changes given the Fed cuts, its going to be a huge move" Could be. Question is from where. Could be tomorrow, could be October. Anyway, nothing would make me happier than some nice easy long-side momentum trades. I look forward to them so much, I usually cover way too soon. Of course, in this market, covering at all has been too soon. Wouldn't think of fighting the tape. The tape is our friend. I've also found that I don't need to slap myself when I get too greedy - the tape does the job for me.