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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (835)	3/20/2001 7:39:41 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally The Federal Reserve made a misstep today that will have to be corrected between meetings in April. As I have stated over the years there is a conversation taking place between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street which you can read daily in the Wall Street Journal and which is reflected in the movements of various financial markets. Today's equity move down reflects the fact that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve. The Federal Funds Rate is still above the ten-year bond rate, the market rate, at a time when inflation is not a concern. The Federal Reserve cuts 1/2 a point when market participants are clamoring for a 3/4 point cut. Then coincident with the 1/2 point cut the Federal Reserve writes they are concerned about falling stock prices as it effects consumption. If the Fed was so concerned about this relation they should have cut 3/4 of a point at a minimum; this decrease should have been given far more thought. Well, they should be more concerned tonight about confidence and consumption because many businesses and many investors expected more forceful action than a 1/2 point cut. Further, if they are going to cut between meetings in two or four weeks why not cut more forcefully now? What is the point of waiting? It just erodes confidence. It just adds to the instability. It just adds to the uncertainty and volatility. Alan, you made a mistake today and you need to address it quickly. P.S. Thanks for the rate cut because any cut is better than no cut at this point.

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (835)	3/20/2001 8:10:06 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

wally, here's my bogus assessment. greenspan has made it abundantly clear that he is not here to support the level of stock prices. his only concern is the economy. as long as he sees it not slipping into serious recession, i believe he is content, and even happy that the stock markets are cratering. what was the level of the naz and the dow when he first made his speech about "irrational exuberance"? I believe about 6000 for the dow and i hope someone can post here for accuracy these numbers. My theory is that he's happy once again because he would like the pe's to return to historical norms. i also believe he has a "wink and a nod" agreement with g w bush to get the damage done in the first term of bush's presidency. this way g w has three years to recover from this and greenspan felt it had to occur sometime. i don't think greenspan feels comfortable without genuine risk perceived in the markets. i expect the dow to go into a genuine bear like the other markets and the naz to approach 1400. the qqq's should hold in the 30's. btw, is there a site where one can obtain historical pe ratios for stocks and indicies? thanks for that article.