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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: limtex who wrote (34252)	3/21/2001 12:03:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

good short debate on CNBC tonight about Fed cuts and recession first, let me preface that I am a jackass, not a bigot during my education I learned a few things and during my career those things were reinforced I have the utmost respect for Jews in the world of business generalizations stink, but I find them often extremely sharp mentally, and not prone to emotional biases sure, I tried to strangle my old Digital boss, but let's not count that my best college friend is a LungIslander enough, before I protest too much the CNBC debate featured three Jews, each an expert on economics who could ask for a better setting? whenever I see Allen Sinai, my attention perks one guest was Sinai from some private economic consultancy another guest was Jeremy Siegel of Wharton School and a sharpie named Steinberg from Merrill Lynch they discussed today's rate cut and likelihood of recession Sinai has no vested interest, and believes: we are entering a recession that cannot be avoided the Fed waited too long before easing, and has not eased fast enough to compensate Greenspan definitely blew it today, not cutting 75 the economy is slowly down, and will slow down more lower earnings will soon lead to many more layoffs accelerated layoffs will feed into reduced consumer spending reduced spending will affect a cross-section of companies next to see sharper stock values decline are Dow stocks and non-tech S&P lower interest rates cannot stop the recession increased spending can stop the recession but consumer spending will not revive until job security returns momentum has begun for reduced spending, not played out look for economic bottom late in 2001, recovery by 2nd half 2002 Greenspan blew it Jeremy Siegel has no vested interest, and believes: we will come out of this slowdown, but it will take time we probably will have a recession, at best a brief one lower interest rates will stimulate the economy but it will take time interest rates are an ineffective means to stimulate spending Greenspan couldve cut 75 today, wouldve been better, but what he did today was ok the economy will bottom this year, recovery by year end at earliest Greenspan should have done more, sooner Steinberg has a clear vested interest, and believes: Fed cuts will get the job done, everything on track so far inventories are working off gradually, as expected we will avert a recession dont expect a rash of corporate layoffs spending will return to proper health the economy will bottom this summer, and recover by year end Greenspan perhaps shouldve cut 75 today, but he is on top of the matter that is from memory... I didnt see the entire interviews but I did see the entire Sinai talk I like Sinai's track record over the years he is the sharpest knife in the drawer among economists economists vary from total shitbrains to geniuses tremendous spread of talent in this profession Sinai is in top3 in my book earnings will not return simply because rates are lower we must proceed thru an entire sequence of events capex spending has been halted in many pockets of the economy jobs have begun to be shed by corporate managers as earnings become even more visible, expect more layoffs consumer spending has declined from not only stock lost wealth, but also from job insecurity corporate spending has declined from poor visibility in earnings consumer and corporate spending will not quickly revive you cannot get to fourth gear before getting into first gear in January GreenShit claimed the supertanker was not moving that is saying GDP growth was zero then with FedFundsRate above 3mo TB yield, BRAKES ARE STILL ON I believe we will see negative GDP growth for Q1 if not, then surely negative GDP growth for Q2 inventories came down briefly in late January but they grew in a big way in February inventories clearly identify what gear we are in expect GDP to decline for 3-4 months at least because only then will FedFunds be at/below 3mo TBills GreenTurd needs to begin to manage a stock market recovery because stock levels will soon trigger spending cutbacks GreenAsshole's cute talk of "trying to keep everyone guessing" was irresponsible, unprofessional, incompetent, and I believe treasonous to the American Free Enterprise system remember: stock market is smarter at predicting recession than anyone, any small group of people, any micro institution of people this stock market is predicting a recession Sinai sees it also brace yourself sell into rallies short vulnerable overpriced stocks with nonexistent earnings they may be dead peanut shells on the floor by this time next year shalom, Haime