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Stats Now Put Us In the
Crosshairs For An Impact Event
YOWUSA.COM, March 12, 2001
Marshall Masters
Right now, we're at the peak of a solar maximum. Statistically speaking, this is when a major Tunguska-class impact event such as the one that occurred in 1908 is most likely to happen.
The airburst caused by this event leveled an area the size of Connecticut, and statistically speaking, major impacts such as these occur every 50-100 years.
Here is the kicker, our current solar max peaked last February 15, and this means the solar max peaks will occur in 2012 and 2023.
On February 15, 2001, NASA reported the first solar max of this century had peaked at its highest level. This is because they have observed a flip flop in the Sun's magnetic poles. The Sun’s North Pole is now its South Pole and visa versa. This flip-flop happens every 11 years, so the solar maximum peaks for the first 30 years of this century happen to be 2001, 2012 and 2023.
Given that the last Tunguska-class event occurred over 70 years ago, and that both Tunguska-class events happened during the first thirty years of the last century, it is not hard to see that the odds are stacking up against us, in the first thirty years of this century.
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Tunguska-class Events of The Last Century
The peaks of the first two solar maximums of the last century occurred in 1908 and 1930. These solar max peaks were also accompanied by major impact events in the Tunguska area of Siberia (1908) and the Northern Amazon basin (1930).
While little is known of the 1930 Amazon impact event, a great deal has been learned about the 908 Tunguska event in Siberia and this impact has been so well documented researchers have coined the phrase Tunguska-class event, to describe the blast force generated by the airburst of this meteorite.
In 1995, the Vatican reported that another Tunguska-class event happened in 1930, in an upper tributary of the Amazon in Brazil close to the border with Peru. According to a Catholic Priest who witnessed the event, the impact leveled a huge expanse of jungle and set huge fires that raged unabated for months.
What these two Tunguska-class events have in common is that they both occurred during a period of extreme solar activity called a solar maximum. This is important, because major asteroid impact events typically follow a cyclical pattern, with long periods of light activity, followed by short bursts of high activity. Also, they occur more often during high levels of solar activity.
Given that our government has evidenced to interest in funding projects to identify Tunguska-class impactors, one wonders why? But an interesting twist in the case of the Tunguska event may offer a far-fetched explanation as to the government’s real reason. Simply put, they cannot see them because according to noted Australian physicist, some Tunguska-class impactors may be invisible!
UPI, March 9, 2001
Invisible asteroids might endanger Earth
MELBOURNE, Australia, -- Invisible asteroids and other cosmic bodies made of a new form of matter may pose a threat to Earth, asserts a noted Australian physicist.
Robert Foot of the University of Melbourne claims a meteorite composed of mirror matter -- a form of the invisible dark matter that many say makes up over 95 percent of the universe -- could impact the Earth without leaving any fragments.
Indeed, he told United Press International, asteroids made of mirror matter may have been responsible for such cataclysmic events as the so-called Tunguska blast, which destroyed acres of Siberian forest in 1908.
Princeton physicist Howard Georgi is skeptical of Foot's claims, however.
"Robert Foot's ideas are interesting," Georgi told UPI. "They are also, of course, extremely speculative."
Georgi also believes that invisible asteroids are not a top priority of physics research.
Before we scoff at the notion of invisible asteroids, let’s keep in mind our present level of knowledge about physics. Most reasonable physicists would agree that if a set of encyclopedias were used to represent the universal knowledge of physics that at present we've only mastered the first volume.
Regardless of whether the next Tunguska-class impactor is visible or not visible, it is already overdue from a statistical perspective, and this should worry us in light of their destructive force.
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The Destructive Power of a Tunguska-class Impactor
We’ve never seen a major impact event, but we’ve often seen images of nuclear mushrooms. We know the nuclear bomb, so let’s compare it with the destructive power of a Tunguska-class impactor.
On August 6, 1945, the United States dropped an atomic bomb called Little Boy on the Japanese city of Hiroshima and it detonated with the equivalent force of 15,000 tons of TNT or more simply, 15 kilotons.
"A bright light filled the plane," wrote then Colonel. Paul Tibbets, the pilot of the Enola Gay, the B-29 that dropped the first atomic bomb. "We turned back to look at Hiroshima. The city was hidden by that awful cloud...boiling up, mushrooming." For a moment, no one spoke. Then everyone was talking. "Look at that! Look at that!
Look at that!" exclaimed the co-pilot, Robert Lewis, pounding on Tibbets's shoulder. Lewis said he could taste atomic fission; it tasted like lead. Then he turned away to write in his journal.
"My God," he asked himself, "what have we done?"
America's newest intercontinental ballistic missile is the Peacekeeper missile. It first became operational in 1988, and when armed with the latest generation of the W-87 nuclear warhead can deliver a 475 Kt burst. This is roughly equivalent to 31 Hiroshima a-bombs.
The Tunguska meteorite that hit Siberia in 1908 detonated about 7 miles above ground and airburst generated approximately 20 Megatons of energy. So then, how does the yield of a Tunguska-class impactor compare with Hiroshima A-bomb and the Peacekeeper W-87 warhead?
If for example, America wanted to bomb Russia with an equal amount of destructive power that was unleashed by the 1908 Tunguska impact, it would need to launch at least 42 of its current peacekeeper missiles at Russia, or use its manned bombers to deliver at least 1,300 Hiroshima A-bombs.
Now here is the kicker. The meteorite that hit Tunguska in 1908 was a very unsophisticated rock that was approximately 50 meters in diameter and unlike nuclear warheads, it did not have any saftey or self-destruct mechanisims. Rather, it was a simple piece of rock that leveled an area the size of the State of Connecticut, and nothing survived. Nothing!
We are a violent species, but the extent of our destructive abilities pales in comparison with that of our universe.
The collective nuclear arsenals of the world could level the face of the Earth dozens of times, but there are only so many nuclear weapons. In terms of numbers and yield, our nuclear weapons are far outweighed by the shear number of Earth-crossing Tunguska-class asteroids in our system. Yet, we fear the nukes and pay little attention to the real monsters.
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Seriously, Could This Really Happen?
The warnings are out there, from NASA and everyone else in between. The problem is that we will not truly believe it happens until it happens.
We know we are more likely to die in a car crash than in an airplane crash, but we’re more afraid of airplane crashes because both dramatic events with large losses of life and well covered by the media. But, the blame does not rest solely on us, the average folk who do our best to make life work each day.
Ample evidence of the threat is there but we must rely on scientists to explain it to us, and what makes that really difficult for that average person is that the scientists themselves are not in full agreement. Consequently, those of us who have never seen such an event have a hard time relating to this scientific dissonance. Or as Scarlet O’Hara said in the movie Gone With The Wind, “I’ll worry about that tomorrow.”
But if you worry about it today, there is a very simple thing you can do for yourself to see the unquestionable hard evidence that major impact events have and will continue to happen.
The next time there is a full moon and a clear sky, step outside and view it with a relatively inexpensive pair of 7x35 binoculars. As you look at the moon keep two things in mind.
First, notice that it is an airless and lifeless landscape, and second, notice that it is pockmarked with large impact craters.
Next, consider this: Any impact crater on the moon that is large enough to be seen with an inexpensive pair of binoculars represents a devastating possibility for mankind if an impactor of that size were to strike our planet.
Also, be sure to note Tycho Crater. If something that big hit us, we’d be goners and probably so would the cockroaches.
It is not a matter of if, but rather, a matter of when. To date, we have been very lucky, but any Las Vegas odds maker will tell you that no lucky streak ever lasts forever, which begs the question: Do we have any aces up our sleeves?
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Now There is Some Hope
In 1999, NASA added the Deep Impact mission to its Discovery Program. On February 2001, they finalized their preliminary design, which calls for a unmanned probe that will shoot a half ton copper dart into Comet 9P/Tempel 1, in early 2004.
The stated scientific aim of the Deep Impact probe (when boiled down to its essence) is to create a really big hole in the middle of the Comet 9P/Tempel 1, so that NASA scientists can see whatever is to be seen.
NASA however, is a only front man for the operation. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory is the one running the show, and JPL is to the department of defense, what bananas are to a banana split.
To give you an example of JPL runs things, the dumb copper dart NASA originally initially planned to use will now be equipped with an autonomous guidance system.
Or in other words, once Deep Space arrives on station, it will be at a safe, stand off distance from Comet Temple 1 when it launches it’s half-ton smart bomb, which just happens to have a dummy payload this time.
Upon closer examination, it is easy to see that the Deep Space project represents the first generation of unmanned, remotely piloted anti-impactor launch platforms. For the sake of brevity, let’s just call them “rock killers.”
What is really good about this, is that these rock killers can be quickly mass-produced using a off the shelf technology.
For example, the Delta II three-stage rocket will be used as the launch vehicle for Deep Impact and is also the workhorse of the unmanned military space program and can be easily mass-produced by Boeing.
As to the probe, once the Deep Impact rock killer and its various support systems are operational, they can also be quickly mass produced the like Delta II rockets.
Once Deep Impact completes is mission successfully, mankind will posses a reliable rock killer. Go Deep Impact go!
But before we allow our exuberance about our new “untried” rock killers to bury our attention to the threat let’s keep in mind that so system is foolproof, or rock proof for that matter.
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We Need To Raise Our Consciousness
We tend to view the possibility of an impact event from an external viewpoint. It is a statistical probability that draws our attention to films and television programs. We watch them, and then we talk about the actors and the script and bandy a few quotes around but do we really get it?
No we do not, because if we did we would be hounding our elected officials without mercy.
Therefore, our highest priority for impact defense needs to be an increased public consciousness. Here is where the science community can step and make a big difference without spending a single red cent, and we already know how to do it.
As a child I grew up during the height of the Cold War and we regularly practice duck and cover drills at our grade school. On a periodic basis, my teacher would suddenly announce, “This is a nuclear attack drill. Everyone duck and cover.”
With that, we’d stop what we were doing and jump under our desks, curl up and then wait for the all clear signal to let us know the drill was over. Afterwards, we’d often discuss the prospects of nuclear war with our teachers, and then again that evening at the dinner table with our families. It was sobering to say the least.
There is no doubt in my mind that these grade school duck and cover drills elevated our public consciousness, which in turn contributed to the peaceful end of the Cold War.
If the science community could reinvent the duck and cover drills of the Cold War era, they could encourage a whole new generation of American citizens to say, “Here is your mandate. Here is all the money you need. Now make it so, or we’ll elect someone who will!”
If we could manage this, we would no longer have to listen to the propaganda spewed at us by governments who know we cannot handle the real truth. Of course, this would put a lot of conspiracy theorists and Machiavellian government types out of work, but this omelet is well worth the breaking of many eggs.
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