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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (44100)	3/20/2001 7:43:08 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

FWIW, the VIX hit the high 30's today(would like to see a number in the 40's for a sign of bottoming a la '98) and the Nasdaq version of the Vix nearly hit a 52 week high: quote.yahoo.com

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (44100)	3/20/2001 8:14:58 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Hi Brian, one more comment on Kumar's statement >``We do not believe that there will be a sustainable cyclical recovery until'' the second half of 2002, Kumar wrote.< That can be nothing better than guess work. As you know, the semi equip orders cycle is synchronized to the cycle of ww semiconductor shipments. I think we have agreement here the semi equip cycle will form a V [as before] and the bottom of the V will be reached in a few months [fewer than 6]. I base this simply on eyeballing the chart and assuming the down slope stays the same. If that occurs, ww semiconductor shipments would also hit their V bottom about the same time [since they are drivers of equip orders]. for easy reference, please see first chart geocities.com Gottfried PS: let's remember that the last ww semiconductor shipment # published by SIA was for Jan '01 - almost 2 months ago. I expect the Feb and March numbers to be sequentially lower, bringing us even nearer a floor.