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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (8842)	3/21/2001 12:22:32 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197036

Have you seen any numbers anywhere for total CDMA handsets sold worldwide in 2000? The only place I have seen it is on that slide from Thornley's presentation. I relistened to it and it is clear he is talking about handset shipments and not sales. Still....67m is a pretty big number when you consider the Korean subsidy ban. Big replacememt somewhere (?) ... and there is some inventory somewhere .... I have been looking everywhere for signs of CDMA handset inventory in the channel...and havent found anything. MOT, RFMD, Radio Shack, and Qualcommm have all commented....all said the same thing, CDMA handset inventories seem near normal. It is tough to get a complete handle since Samsung and LG are such a large part of CDMA sales...but it would be surprising if MOT/RFMD hadnt seen anything. VOXX warned on Monday....but they blamed this on the delay in the introduction of the 9100. They will have a CC on Friday, that might be able to shed some light on the inventory situation. I think that CDG is lowballing...even if Qualcomm only sold 60m handsets last year (out of the 67m handset shipments), it would imply a 60% replacement rate from the 50m sub base at the beginning of '00. That seems way too high when you compare it to the industry standard of 40%. Either China has built-out a huge CDMA network and is keeping everyone in the dark.....or Maurice has stockpiled a couple million CDMA handsets in his backyard, in preparation for the NZ CDMA launch this summer <g>. Slacker