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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome who wrote (9549)	3/20/2001 10:24:34 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 10921

Jerome, well said. Even the Memorial Day recovery sounds plausible, because earnings will have been digested. Can we, please, go sideways instead of down till then? Gottfried

To: Jerome who wrote (9549)	3/20/2001 10:39:10 PM
From: Keith Sprague	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Very interesting questions, and points, to say the least. Although I don't post on SI much, I do periodically read several threads. I personally was caught up in the "tech hype" that we have seen for the past several years. However, I have been very fortunate because I have always invested with valuation in mind. I did dabble in BRCM and JDSU in February/March of last year, but these positions lasted no more than several days. I can't remember if they were profitable or not, but I have managed to make money over the past year being in margin, invested only in tech. I was very fortunate that I made 2 big bets, and was able to make huge gains on both stocks, that more than offset the numerous losers that I have had. Anyway, back to your questions. 1)When will stock prices recover? I wish that I knew. I am under water in almost every position that I hold. I have used the past few months to accumulate shares in companies that have been very highly valued over the past year. Was this the right thing to do? I don't know, and obviously no one else dose either. If and when these stock prices will recover is anyones guess. I try to analyze what has occurred over the past year and the years ahead, and I come up with different scenarios. In one scenario, I see growth continuing in the next year or to. In the other scenario, I see a lot of tech companies going through a major contraction. Which case will materialize, I don't know. I am now out of margin, so I am obviously not very bullish. However, I question how much lower many of these stocks can go (They always say that the market over does it on both the upside and downside). There are a lot trading at nice multiples to BV and cash. 2)Where were we wrong? Is holding tech now still wrong? I think that the media helped to propel the past several years of stellar tech gains. Never before has the market become so main stream. Eventually, everyone was in tech. How much more money could pour into this sector? Obviously, the NASDAQ was saturated with $$$. As soon as Mr Greenspan pulled the plug on the party, the money started to flow out of the market (or at least into someone else's hands - hedge funds?). Secondly, we all thought that the growth would continue forever. There would never be a tech recession, never a slowdown. That was the mistake of all tech investors!! As far as is holding tech right or wrong, that is up to you to decide. There is definitely potential for more downside here. If the tech recession continues, or becomes a depression, how low will these stocks go? It may sound far fetched for a tech depression, but a tech recession was impossible a year ago. Now look at the world. My money is betting that tech will recover, but again, I am focusing on companies with a fundamental value. A strong cash position, a strong market position, etc. I hope we find a bottom soon, but it does not look like it. Make sure that whatever positions that you do hold are long-term. I would hate to find out that some people could not afford retirement/mortgage payments because of an obsession with tech stocks. Good luck, and try to hang in there.

To: Jerome who wrote (9549)	3/21/2001 8:57:17 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10921

Jerome, that was a nice answer. Two thoughts. You can perform with the market without owning tech stocks but you can outperform the market by owning techs. I too am heavily in tech stocks, write options and buy long calls. I like the tech stocks because there are many with sound fundamentals and they bring lots of volitility to the table - ideal for the use of options. One must prepare for down markets. I think that two years is about the longest down market one must be prepared to weather. And one must expect surprises - both pleasant and unpleasant. The bubble lasted much longer than we could have imagined but they always burst. OK, a third thought. Those who go to cash in a drop are playing a loser's game. History shows that reversals to the upside are often quite sudden and one must stay in to profit from them. If you don't stay in you get all the losses and only a part of the gains. Someone out there may be able to time the market to perfection but most of us who have been at this awhile have learned not to even try. If you can weather two years of downturn you never have to time the market.

To: Jerome who wrote (9549)	3/21/2001 11:16:06 AM
From: Daniel	Respond to of 10921

O.T. But my Vegas friends keep telling me that if I don't bet I can't win. That sounds like state lottery ads. Daniel

To: Jerome who wrote (9549)	3/22/2001 6:55:33 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Jerome, OT *** Vishay David Dreman considers it a value Vishay Intertech (18, VSH) is the largest U.S. and European manufacturer of resistors, capacitors and inductors and is a producer of discrete semiconductors. The company's markets weakened suddenly and sharply in late 2000, and the stock's price is down two thirds from last May. Even so, the company's earnings should come back powerfully from 2000. The stock is cheap at five times trailing earnings. forbes.com