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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (39392)	3/20/2001 10:01:40 PM
From: Teri Garner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 49816

Beware of bears One Dow watcher says average's close Tuesday makes bear market official March 20, 2001: 7:53 p.m. ET NEW YORK (CNNfn) - The Dow Jones industrials finished at 9,720.76 Tuesday, down about 17 percent from its all time high, and one man who may follow the Dow closer than anyone said that number makes the bear market official. Richard Russell, editor of the Dow Theory Letter who has followed the average for more than 40 years, told CNN's Moneyline the Dow closed below an important milestone Tuesday, its low for the prior year. It's the first time the Dow has closed below its low of the prior year since the bull market began in 1982. The broader S&P 500 index dipped into a bear market territory – generally defined as a drop of more than 20 percent from a market high - earlier this month while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has been in a bear market since last year. Russell declared the bull market dead and said the Dow – which plummeted 238.35 points in reaction to an interest-rate cut from the Federal Reserve - is headed sharply lower from here. And his track record for prediction is pretty good so far. In June of 2000 Russell described the three stages of a bear market. The first stage is attrition, as individual stocks plunge but the averages hold up. Investors saw Lucent (LU: Research, Estimates), AT&T (T: Research, Estimates) and Microsoft (MSFT: Research, Estimates) break down one by one. Russell said we are currently in the second stage, when the entire market falls as earnings and business conditions decline and investors begin to sense something is wrong. This stage lasts the longest, Russell said. The third stage comes when investors give up on stocks and extreme fear prevails. According to Russell this is when the bear market ends and a new bull charges forward. But he added a bear lasts about one–third 1/3 to one-quarter as long as the bull, which could mean a few more years of the current conditions.

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (39392)	3/21/2001 7:30:24 AM
From: CrossBar	Respond to of 49816

Fred, I like your idea of everyone submitting one stock to buy long for the next bear rally! My submission is AFCI. Buy under 16 and sell over 17. Since I am still trying to overcome my 'investment' mentality on stocks, I like to trade ones that I wouldn't mind holding long term! However, given that I am still sitting on a ton of EMC :-( the fact that I like AFCI probably means that everyone should short it over 17 and cover under 16 instead of vice versa! From Yahoo finance: Advanced Fibre Communications, Inc. designs and manufactures end-to-end distributed multi-service access solutions for the portion of the telecommunications network between the carrier's central office and its subscribers, often referred to as the "local loop." P/E is under 20 I realize that all telecom/networking stocks are anathema to traders/investors these days, but I like this one and think there is a very real future for this one. Meanwhile, I keep selling it everytime it goes up and buying back lower because I take any profit these days. Currently I have cable modem....only because DSL/ADSL is not available. biz.yahoo.com Tuesday March 6, 6:03 am Eastern Time Press Release New Report by RHK Predicts 71% CAGR for Residential DSL Over the Next Four Years Cable Modems No Longer Dominate the Broadband Market SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 6, 2001-- Residential DSL service in North America will grow from 2.2 million users in 2000 to 18.6 million users by 2004, according to a new report by leading telecom market research firm, RHK, Inc. According to the report, Access Network Systems Digital Subscriber Line: North American xDSL Market Forecast, ADSL (asymmetrical digital subscriber line) will capture 50 percent of the residential broadband market by 2004, growing at a CAGR of 71 percent. RHK's new report also examines the SDSL (symmetrical digital subscriber line) market and finds that the SDSL market will grow, but at a slower rate than ADSL. ADSL is the main competitor to cable modems for residential users. At the close of 2000, broadband cable modem users numbered 5.1 million, with ADSL users weighing in at 2.2 million. RHK's report attributes the rapid growth of the residential broadband market to telecommuting, growing availability of multimedia content (e.g. Napster and streaming media) and improving subscriber economics. ``Cable has previously dominated broadband because modems were deployed eighteen months earlier than ADSL technology,'' states Kelly Dougherty, Analyst at RHK, Inc. ``However, we believe that ADSL is a worthy opponent and will gain ground over the next few years.'' Carriers are responding to the strong consumer demand by increasing their DSL footprints. ``In 2000, only 50 percent of homes were eligible for service. SBC's Project Pronto and other carriers' initiatives to serve customers through remote terminals will allow over 70 percent of homes to receive DSL by 2004.''