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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (9551)	3/21/2001 9:13:02 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Interesting questions here. I'll try and volunteer my answer, where did we go wrong? We were blind to the fact that when the industry spends more than 20% of its revenues on capex, it is rapidly over expanding. When will it be "safe" to get back in? I expect a small rally any day now to the middle of April, maybe as far as the third week. After that, however, I expect another gut wrenching decline getting us lower than the current prices (with AMAT retesting and quite possibly breaching its low around $34). As yo when will it be safe? I have two signals I am watching for (in conjunction with other market measures), the first, I am waiting for INTC to finally announce that they indeed are reducing CAPEX from their current $7.5 B for the year, such an announcement could precipitate the washout conditions and the knee high blood level required to set a bottom. A more silent bottom would be, IMTO, the turn in the BTB curve. Zeev