Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (66305)	3/21/2001 12:02:58 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116770

o/t Ron Reece re: "In the meantime, energy and consumer staples may be the only safe place to be. " ... we'll you allmost got it. Energy & Consumer staples "WERE" the only safe place to be.... now cash & gold/silver stocks are the only safe place to be imho. Energy is NOT a safe haven defensive play - not after the OSX allready having nearly tripled here during the last two years... not into a slowing global economy. Energy is NOT a truly defensive sector and you're walking headlong into a "Deja Vu all over again" repeat cyclical collapse from the Asian Contagian part deux. The Nat Gas Crisis is a Californian Crisis. Nat Gas prices will swing back in the other direction sooner, than most expect. NG stocks are only cheap based on this blip in prices that are now double what they will be in 9 to 15 mos max. PE's of 8 are really PE's of 16 at normalized prices; cfps multiples of 3-5 x are really multiples of 6-10 times normalized gas prices. Do you think the Street is going to wait untill Nat Gas Prices fall back thru $2.40 before they dump EOG XTO NBL BR FST et al ? No. It's when the re-appearance of normalized prices begin to "appear" on the horizon - not when they arrive - that E&P's will be dumped en-masse as cyclicals allways are. So; your bet here in the Gas Stocks - has a clock ticking.... you & the Institutions are all going to have to get out of that very , very small exit door sometime soon... within the next 9-15 mos. You want to buy Nat Gas E&P stocks here -with their 2002 eps & cfps numbers lower than their 2001 numbers here ? Lower sequential earnings just 2-3 quarters away in a cyclical sector at historic highs with a Bear Market & a slowing global economy & you want to buy here ? ... did you buy QCOM at 200 as well ? Go back & read the SI SD thread during the Sept '99 E&P collapse that occured into - then; ramping earnings & commodity prices - no one saw it coming; or the OSX collapse in April 1998 - no one saw it coming there either. Well; "some" of us called the Nat Gas top at the end of December & here's how far some of the E&P's are still off their highs from then: APA - $12 APC - $ 9 EOG - $12 LD - $10 NFX - $13 OIL - $30 THX - $ 8 VPI - $ 6 ... those are all substantial % rollovers. Any bounce here is a 2nd bite at the profit taking/exit apple imo... take it, take the money & run - don't walk. You've got gold stocks very, very cheap here - with nice trading volatility and silver is really getting attractive. Here's my conundrum (VBG): .... I got to sell you my Oil & Gas stocks here at $28-35 Oil and $5-$9 Nat Gas over the last few months - atop the historic all-time record high combined commodity price level - after they've just tripled over the last 24 months and I can now buy XAU - gold & silver stocks at their alltime low - without missing a beat ? .... silly me ~ what was I thinking ?