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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44146)	3/21/2001 12:00:09 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

DRAM Chip Inventories Fall, Spot Price Rebound Seen: Merrill Analyst March 21, 2001 (TAIPEI) -- A Merrill Lynch analyst has predicted that the prices of DRAM microchips are approaching a low level. Joseph Osha, a Merrill Lynch analyst, said that DRAM prices are set to bottom out, as there is no room for a further downward movement. Osha gave an unchanged investment rating of "medium-term buy" to chip-making giant Micron Technology Inc. Also, the investment company's prediction was bolstered by the news that several leading Taiwanese chipmakers, including Winbond Electronics Corp., Nanya Technology Corp. and Powerchip Semiconductor Corp., have confirmed that their inventories have been falling since March. They see a rebound of DRAM spot prices ahead, as their inventories can only meet the market's demand for three weeks. The 64Mb DRAM and 128Mb DRAM prices are said to have climbed to US$2.1 and US$4.1, respectively, equivalent to the chip-making costs of Taiwanese companies, as Hyundai Electronics Industries Co., Ltd., a Korean chipmaker, decided to slash production at its fifth and sixth plants, probably by around 10 percent. As shipments of motherboards and PCs begin to rise, investors have increased their purchases of DRAM shares, expecting profits from a rebound. Osha said he sees the light at the end of the tunnel, and believes that a rebound in DRAM prices would follow, in view of the narrow prospects of further falls. In fact, several motherboard powerhouses, such as Asustek Computer Inc., Gigabyte Technology Co., Ltd. and Micro-Star International Co., reported that their sales for January and February rose by more than 60 percent. The increasing sales have speeded up the consumption of chip inventories, which have fallen to their normal level of one week's supply. A recovery in the chip market may occur in April. Osha will travel to Taiwan for an investment presentation in late March. His forecast for the DRAM industry is expected to be the main subject of the presentation. (Commercial Times, Taiwan)

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44146)	3/21/2001 12:06:09 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Sam, The Japanese market is selling at 2x book value. The American market is selling at 4x book value. The Japanese market has been in the grip of the bear for 11 years You almost make the point NOT to invest in Japan. You state on the one hand that the Japanese market is selling at only one-half the book value here, and yet it has been in the grip of the bear for 11 years. If this value was there all along, investors would have latched onto it by now. They haven't. Structural change is needed in Japan along with a more transparent, open business environment. Until these changes occur, comparing BV between the US and Japan is basically an apples and oranges comparison. Wake up and smell the sake! Tell this to the investors who have been left holding the bag for 15 years! Brian .

To: Sam Citron who wrote (44146)	3/21/2001 9:06:13 AM
From: LemurHouse	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Re book value in Japan, a very large part of their problem is that book value there is less indicative of actual economic value than it should be, no? The financials and the big conglomerates are still carrying inflated asset values, inflated real estate values, and bad loans on the books. The fact that the big companies are so intertwined makes it all the more difficult to unravel. Their reluctance to take the bitter medicine of writing these down is a major factor in preventing them from moving forward. They are taking some steps in that direction next month, and even those steps are scaring the bejesus out of people. I would be reluctant to rely on book value when evaluating companies over there. But if anything, their market is selling even lower relative to "book" than it would appear. FWIW. AD