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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (49507)	3/21/2001 9:01:39 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . . . . I capitulate. Happy? . . . . Spirit, I never thought I'd see the day. And it is a sad commentary on what drives these markets. The fact that the Po' Boys are waiting for the diehard bullish mom and pop investors to give up and sell out is a sickening thought. The economy is not that bad, the FED says they are on top of things, the worse part of the economy is that the inexperienced CEOs made some extreme moves out of panic. . . like layoffs, cancellation of orders, and curtailment of expansion. . . but since so many of these inexperienced CEOs have jumped the gun on the economy, they have made major contributions towards fear of recession. . . .which is becoming a self-fulfilled prophecy. I have no respect for them. We've seen this scenario plenty of times before. This massive sell-off did not start with a weakening economy. . .with the market reflecting the weakness. If that were the case, I'd buy it. But instead, we got SHARP market drops on a strong economy. . . as was evident April through November. In fact, the economy didn't even begin to show real signs of weakness until December. . . a full 8 months after the sell-off began!! So excuse me if I don't buy this "recession" lock stock and barrel. Housing starts are strong. Car sales are strong. Yes, inventories have risen, but that is hardly reason to sound the alarm. Inventories can be managed lower over time. Not that big of deal. The CPI and core rate both came in a tenth of a point HIGHER than expected. . . indicating that prices are still hot out there. Hey! What happened to all that inventory? A move UP in consumer prices hardly reflects a slowing economy!!! HELLO??!!?? But with the markets slammed so hard and "not allowed" to get up again, many fine companies are finding it impossible to get loans. So even if they were doing fine prior to the tech market chokehold, many will now fail right along with the garbage techs. It has become a survival of the fittest. Do we need this in the markets? Whom does it benefit most? Why would a market wash-out be good for Wall Street? ANSWER: Because of the ever-growing backlog of IPOs. Many hundreds of companies are waiting to come to market. But because of market conditions, there have been extremely few IPOs in recent months. Room needs made for the new HOT IPO's. And the market must first turn before the gates will be opened once again. I still maintain that once the IPOs are slated for release. . . that the same analysts that have been downgrading QCOM at $19 will turn around and begin hyping stocks once again. The hype-machine has not been destroyed. Wall Street will once again create an artificial demand for its IPOs, through articles in magazines, financial papers and TV interviews. . . .the true pawns of the Po' Boys. Think about it. . . the hottest tech stocks like CIEN, JNPR, SCMR, JDSU, EXTR, NEWP, etc. . . . have all been taken way down in price. . . CSCO in the teens says it all. So when market conditions improve, IPOs will hit the street at their usual inflated prices. . . .like $20, $30, $40 per share? This will give the illusion that they have value on par with the hottest techs. I can hear the investment bankers now. . . ."If you are going to put out an IPO, why make it a penny stock, selling in single digits? Put it out there in the 30's and let it run with the BIG DOGS!" These markets are contrived in ways that should be a crime! So Spirit, as a permabull, we needed YOUR capitulation for a true bottom to be set. This was a milestone event. March 20th, 2001 will be a date we here will all remember. Be proud of your bullish view on America. You are the picture of the private investor. Bear no shame in your decision. Just take a day or so to clear your mind, so that you can re-evaluate EVERYTHING as though you had never invested before! And best wishes to you as always. . . Rande Is

To: American Spirit who wrote (49507)	3/21/2001 9:55:34 AM
From: KevinThompson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

"Monday morning quarterbacking is easy." Who is "Monday morning quarterbacking"? I don't know what you're talking about. A Monday morning quarterback prognosticates after the game. Last week I was telling you to open your eyes to the market trend and don't put your faith and hope in AG's meeting. So why do you come back now and accuse me of Monday morning quarterbacking. I resent that insinuation. I've been making the point to you all along - that guessing and hoping will make you poor. Apparently that is your method and understanding of the stock market. Goodbye AS, this will probably be my last post to you. We obviously are getting no where.