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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (9298)	3/21/2001 9:08:15 AM
From: Jurgen Trautmann	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Hi all! I'm not that convinced like you. Theres the fundamental argument - guess that's Vito's point. I agree. But me don't know when and how this will end. Therefor it's also a risk for me going short (for a longer term) like it's a risk when I go long. Nevertheless I'm thinking like Vito that's the right way choosing short-trades when a bearmarket is intact. Then I read a lot about technic - this while you all are granting more or less that you cannot trust in technical instruments in this situation. Tiny contradiction, isn't it? I'm doing this since 95 - and I remember that just during each turnaround was happening you could read "dead cat bounce", "bull-trap", "not enough volume", "need to cross this or that resistance", "not lasting" and so on. Of course I don't know "when" but we all know that the day will come when also this down-channel will be crossed to the upside - lasting. Thus I cannot understand that the simple fact that a downchannel has been intact (until now!) is enough for a logically thinking person to believe that it will be the same tomorrow. I guess/hope that we see the day quite soon when important companies like Dell, Intel announce that demand is increasing again - and being short this day results in double loss. As to my holdings: I'm still long with a bunch of leaps (less than 25%) - I decided to keep them due to 2 reasons: First the "hanging" pricing and monster-spreads made it nearly meaningless to sell yet. 2. I kept just such leaps where I calculated that they could be in the money before expiration with a good probability (hope markets will agree with my estimations ggg). As to stocks I'm still long (~12%) with a few no-tech-holdings in Europe; however, if yesterdays pessimism will be confirmed today (I'm not that sure like you!) I will continue reducing these stocks. For the future I plan to observe these 3 phases: Daily warnings (now) / lack of corporate news (neutral phase) / increasing optimistic news. IMO during the neutral phase a turnaround will happen and I want to be long before the first 20% are lost... Wish you all luck! Jury