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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (9972)	3/21/2001 8:58:01 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

<< NOK's management is unusually bullish during the recession. John Roth at Nortel was very bullish in December 2000 as well, hope Ollila doesn't do a Roth on NOK's investors. >> In a certain sense it is possible that Jorma Ollila, already did a Roth. He was exceptionally bullish on the state of the mobile wireless industry at Capital Markets Day on December 5th, which coincidentally was one week before Nokia's notice of the "mobile wireless recession" that he commented on when FY2000 earnings were announced. He has been widely criticized for this, and NOK has been severely punished for it, despite recording one of the finest years I have ever seen, by any company, in wireless sector. The sector is in the pits, as is tech in general (actually tech is catching up to the wireless pits overall). Earnings will tell the story. I have made the comment before that potentially NOK and QCOM are best positioned to lead the sector back. Both remain bullish on the industry, and neither has guided down. Jorma backed off his 500 to 550 million all vendors handset forecast by popular demand, but so far as I know has not backed off his 180 million forecast for Nokia handsets, nor should he, IMO. I really thought Gartner's comment yesterday that "the wireless industry warranted upbeat expectations, because the only soft market is in the United States, and Europe is still pulling quite strongly and Asia is going like a train", was very interesting. This is rather contrary to what the 2nd tier vendors have stated, particularly the Asians, and in handsets there is only one 1st tier vendor right now. Given the fact that the US is now the largest market for CDMA phones, and that the second largest market is rather stagnant for the moment, I am somewhat more comfortable with Jorma's 180 million Nokia phones than I am with Irwin Jacobs' forecasted 90 million CDMA mobiles. Hopefully both hit the number. - Eric -