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To: Zardoz who wrote (66326)	3/21/2001 9:35:55 AM
From: The Street	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116769

<<world market collapses in 2003, with USA being one of the only to survive.<< And that will not make Gold stocks go up faster than POG? I usually agree with your great commentary Hutch-- but I am talking crisis investing-- not economic mumbo jumbo...

To: Zardoz who wrote (66326)	3/21/2001 10:12:05 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116769

<In 2001 the slow meandering of Grenespan will ensure a world market collapses in 2003, with USA being one of the only to survive.> "One of the only to survive?" How is that possible in a global economy? Could you elaborate? Moreover, what would you call the move in the NAZ over the past year from 5100+ to 1800+, a correction in a bull market? I don't see 1800 COMP holding as we move into earnings reporting season in mid to later April. BTW, HP's CEO came out last night(according to Bloomberg Radio in NY) and said there will be no economic turnaround during the second half of this year and early into 2002. She can't see farther out than that.

To: Zardoz who wrote (66326)	3/21/2001 11:22:58 AM
From: Ahda	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116769

Hutch your educated guess is as a good as anyones but I doubt the USA as being the only nation in the world that will survive. As tech caused this move so it could create a far greater impact on contraction. The tech world is a very in touch world. My brief exposure to anything like a recession occurred somewhere around 74 where architects were a dime a dozen as they came into our office looking for work. Some of them were the best but the best is no good when no one is building. During that period the communication between firms and how many jobs we each had on the boards was slow. In tech, word is fire. Techies communicate with each other in seconds so if Oracle or 3com and the likes are letting go word is in the air in seconds If you recall many companies converting to new systems had double systems, this contributed to our employment. Outside of the USA the tech did not infiltrate as heavily as here especially in areas that did not have the means of instant communication. This means some areas are in birth process. This morning CPI came out stating inflation. Yet in my small corner of the world it just has become an increasingly clear portion of my life. As i dwelled on CA bonds the other day I could not for the life of me grasp the value of the utility bonds when the money will be spent prior to the issue. At the present rate the State is going through funds to avoid a blackout the debit in books is all that I am assured of. This is inflation. You assume as many do that we are immune to downturn but we are starting one. Our populous is too large to be immune, our premise of growth is slowing and changing into non sustained as higher costs clearly loom in our future. Other nations in the world with higher poverty levels will use the true tech base minus the non substantiated end of it, to move forward into higher production. The difference is, the less affluent world has new hope and the need as many parts of the world are attempting to increase their living standards. In summary I don't feel the US will survive while the rest of the world succumbs. I do feel our currency will be questioned and my own currency choice at this moment would be China's Yuan. The drawback is it does not float, so then I think India's Rupee but India is less politically appealing at present, not that either nation have the ultimate system but they do have more room for growth due to poverty and low cost labor. Japans people are fine but the Yen on world front is not. This leaves me with little choice but gold.