Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (15651)	3/21/2001 12:33:10 PM
From: MeDroogies	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19079

Point by point... disclosure it bs because it carries the weight of interpretation with it. Despite my selling of ORCL at a much higher price, I still hold a good number of shares. That says nothing about my temperament, or what I believe. I sold AAPL at 60, knowing it would likely go to 120, because I was getting my wife a new kitchen. So, when I sold or how much I still hold is absolutely meaningless because I would have to explain every facet of my actions to date. There is no context at all in my telling you that I sold ORCL at a higher price and still hold 200 shares. Interest rates at 5.5, 6.5 and the current 5 percent ARE high, in real terms. With inflation edging up, the real rate is now falling rapidly. I figure 3% is the dead level point because real rates will be 0 to negative at that point....assuming we do the bit by bit cutting. 4% is the dead level if it's one fell swoop because that will be interpreted as a strong positive action. The serious question you ask is almost humorous. I am not hiding behind any wall of conceit. I make my decisions based on historical precedent. History loves to repeat, but it also likes to surprise. However, we can't make our decisions based on the hope of a surprise. I have an old saying - "you shouldn't worry about the things you can't control...simply because you can't control them. Worry about the things you can control because if you know what you control, you can make good decisions 90% of the time." Basically, that is what I am doing. Certainly, if my industry suddenly tanks again, in a surprising manner, I would alter my viewpoint then. Right now, there is no solid evidence that I should. Which leads me to the next point regarding tech and the point of things occurring faster. Things went SO WRONG and SO FAST in media (basically, we knew the dot coms were going to go bust in November of 1999, because of the rate they were spending on advertising...so we made hay while the sun shined...however, many media companies inadvertantly assumed that when the dot coms went bust someone would take their place. My company didn't assume that) from June 2000 through Oct 2000. We knew, in advance, that December was going to be ugly. You'd ask why people didn't react. Well, media has a few interesting quirks that allow us to get a bead on where spending will be 6 months out. We knew that in March 2001, spending would be awful and that money would get pulled. However, longer term spending was actually rising. Not alot. But a little. More than we expected. So, when the real economy took it on the chin from Dec to now, what surprises isn't that it happened so hard, but that it took so long. However, in retrospect, it makes sense. Longer term expectations remain higher in ad spending, and are beginning to grow slightly. So, why totally douse yourself now if you're planning to spend later? Some companies did, others didn't. With the cuts in interest rates, much of the advertising revenue that would be likely pulled to cover debt financing or cover profits (which is what they do with the cash) won't be pulled now. That is a bullish indicator. As for denial of the bear market, I've done no such thing. I've accepted the bear. But I've learned quite a bit in 20 years of investing. You don't fight a bull and you don't fight a bear. Bears don't have the stamina of bulls, however. Negativity is something that people don't like to engage in, it's very tiring. As for the schadenfreude...I think you need to revisit my comments. I don't like the "why didn't you buy, I told you so" comments anymore than the schadenfreude. But they are easier to live with. At least if you're down in a bull market, you still have a solid chance of jumping on board somewhere. In a bear market, it's just piling on.