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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chowder who wrote (2118)	3/21/2001 11:44:04 AM
From: Wowzer	Respond to of 23153

FWIW I think it is an excellent strategy. No way will book to bill be positive tomorrow. How the market reacts to it.... well that is another story. Anyway I went short a few shares of LRCX at 26. MU and AMAT are other good short candidates, IMO. I would mention KLAC as well, but every time I play with that one I get burned.

To: chowder who wrote (2118)	3/21/2001 11:48:07 AM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

dabum, I think btb for the SEMI organization will be lower. I base this simply on the trend and the firm belief that once again the orders and btb charts will form a V. For easy reference geocities.com I won't guess how investors will react. They have been perverse lately. :) Gottfried

To: chowder who wrote (2118)	3/21/2001 1:06:52 PM
From: stsimon	Respond to of 23153

Given the HP CEO's comments in Germany today that Europe is beginning to weaken, the book-to-bill has got to be lower. The question is how the stocks will take it. I shorted BRCD today, but am limiting my shorts because any rally here will be violent.

To: chowder who wrote (2118)	3/21/2001 1:51:20 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Dabum3. Re: <<Do you think tomorrow's book to billing semi report will be positive or negative?>> I think it's about 95%+ certain that they will be negative. It's a 3 month rolling average. I think that is already well built into the prices, including the expectations of retail investors who are as cognizant of the btb as most of us are of the api's. The difference is that the trend in btb's are, in my opinion, a little easier to track over the short term. I have also looking at shorting the semi's. The problem is that they have held up pretty well during this dive and we are so low in the nas now that it may jump and take the semi's even higher. I think the intel connection is full of possibilities. If I had the nerve I might go long intel and short the semi's with the thought that if intel cut it's cap spending back it might get a bounce or at least hold, and the semi's would drop. It that didn't happen and the nas bounced, intel would likely bounce with the semi's and even it out. If the nas dropped and intel stood pat on it's plans, the semi shorts would work and the intel long would drop. Who knows, I might even talk myself into it. Any thoughts? Ed