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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (44195)	3/21/2001 12:11:08 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

G, when I first bought INTC in 1994 the PE was close to 10 I remember that because that was when I first got into INTC knowing it was very inexpensive. But it was also before the acknowledgement of INTC as a world class, premier technology name. Assuming its valuation will revert there because it had that valuation once in its lifetime is not taking account of the total picture, and a bit naive IMO. You said it best when you said "someone extrapolating the negative trend might [continue]." This is at best naive and at worst ignorant of the reasons INTC is where it currently is(and is headed). Brian

To: Gottfried who wrote (44195)	3/21/2001 12:21:17 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 70976

guffaw If INTC gets back to a PE of 10, mortgage your house and back up the truck. That valuation assumes that the PC is dead AND that AMD is eating INTC's lunch in the tiny market sliver that remains. Which could happen, but not in this cycle. Katherine

To: Gottfried who wrote (44195)	3/21/2001 12:30:17 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Though I may have been somewhat tongue-in-cheek about the cover story conspiracy, I am deadly serious that this has been an extremely reliable contrary indicator of the stock market. The lead time is usually only a few days so I would call it an important coincident indicator. To gauge what the indicator is telling us, we may need to peek beneath the cover a bit. The more negative and universal the storyline, the more positive the effect. I read the Time storyline as being quite complacent, so this certainly detracts somewhat from the bullishness of the indicator. Nevertheless, it suggests to me that the end of the bear could be quite near. Today's strength in early cyclicals (eg semis, semi equips, air freight) and weakness in defensives (drugs and tobacco) are the telltales I am watching. Sam