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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (2162)	3/21/2001 5:14:18 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

At least when it comes to semi's I've talked about what it would take to create a lasting bottom: 1) Intel needs to reduce cap ex. Still way to optimistic sticking to #'s derived over 12 months ago. 2) Stocks are pricing in a global slowdown, but as far as I can tell semi's still have not. When we get definative news that Europe and Asia are slowing down and tech will be further impacted then I'll be satisfied on this point. 3) The PC cycle is near saturation in US households. No real compelling reason to upgrade at this time. When broadband access (DSL, cable) get a market penetration of 15% or more that might spur more computer buying again (currently less than 5% I believe). But for now DSL is dead. The RBOC's wanted it dead and they succeeded. Now they can roll it out at their own pace. Cable will continue to rollout, but the pace is slow. 4) The cell phone industry is still growing, but they definately have an inventory problem (just like the pc's). We need to get news out of Nokia, MOT etc that the inventory has been worked off. 5) Semi's have to come down to past valuations at low pts in the cycle. Some still close to 50% overvalued. 6) Obviously the US economy needs to begin to show signs of life. 7) Too much greed. Everyone is still afraid of missing the bottom. This is not '87, '98 etc. The bottom will be revisited at least one more time and it'll take much longer to find. Feel free to add to this list. Microsoft is making a big push for Hailstorm, but it's really just a bunch of fee based services that'll fail imho.