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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (867)	3/21/2001 5:51:28 PM
From: T Bowl	Respond to of 10065

Wally - <<Mr GJ, FWIW, Today's CPI/Core CPI (including Year Over Year), will not encourage Dr. Greenshades to accelerate the rate cutting.>> Of course NOTHING is going to encourage him to accelerate ANYTHING... However, I'm not sure it will have much effect on his current thinking. If FIG is truly ahead of it's time by around 11months, and you think it's a valid tool, then the recent core CPI data shouldn't be surprising. Those "pressures" should start easing significantly in the next month or two. Maybe a leveling off for a few months, then back down to 2% or so. Also, we all need to keep in mind that those "scary" core CPI numbers actually aren't all that scary at all. It's very very low at it's current level. The FED has decreased rates significantly when that # has been much higher. Overlay FIG+11months and Core CPI. Pretty high correlation. todd

To: Wally Mastroly who wrote (867)	3/21/2001 6:30:54 PM
From: MrGreenJeans	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

Wally Mr GJ, FWIW, Today's CPI/Core CPI (including Year Over Year), will not encourage Dr. Greenshades to accelerate the rate cutting. Some of the ripple-effect of energy/chemical costs may be starting to be passed on (for instance in food costs & airline costs). Some of the food increase may be due to the beef 'scares', also. Greenspan is going to cut more. Energy costs, generally decrease in the summer, for example the price of natural gas will have little effect. How many air-conditioning units run on natural gas? The costs of energy and food are generally unpredictable and have an exogenous impact on the cpi over time. If Greenspan is concerned about stock prices and consumption he will be cutting rates in short order or he risks seeing the markets tank some more.