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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2173)	3/21/2001 8:24:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 23153

Jim be nimble, Jim be quick! Testimonial Last year I started shorting several K of AMAT at 105, covered at 101, and followed suit often til 85 ish. Should have continued obviously, however, in '98 I learned the hard way. Started shorting late in the game at high 30's down to 22.5 (I believe that was the low), then added shorts at 27 on a bounce. Within 2 weeks I was down 100K. When she turns, she turns fast. It was a great lesson and actually the lesson learned made me much more in the long run. The above said, I have posted before that I believe we will see AMAT in the twenties again. I will be going long this time probably starting at 35 ish, down as low as it goes. AMAT among a few others are gaining market share, they are still expanding brick and mortar sites, and Morgan knows how to take advantage of this cycle. I honestly believe that AMAT and a few others offer all of us the opportunity to double (at the very least) our money in 24 months barring a global meltdown greater than the Asia flu of '97, '98. Best of luck and skill to you, hdr

To: ItsAllCyclical who wrote (2173)	3/21/2001 9:22:43 PM
From: MetalTrader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Jim As with all things, there is no black and white, only shades of gray. Of course I left out the excessive valuation from my comment (Can't be balanced when trying to argue a point )...but you are absolutely correct to pick up on it. as for the chart, put an AMAT chart together with a 20/35/50 day moving average. it's one of the more simplistic but effective to show changing momentum, basing and supports. If you compare the confluence of these MA's you will see that compared with nearly all techs, semis are beginning to look promising. This is looking like bases that make technicians comfortable. Among the rare tech's that look at all interesting now as in investment, not a bet, Dell has hope, although I don't particularly like the PC sector fundamentally. The only tech I've found that really DOES look strong is Nvidia...good fundamentals too in my view. To return to a comparable low previous multiple of sales from earlier blow-ups, I've been trying to buy AMAT at 39 but since mid jan without success. As of this morning one market sentiment indicator had traders at only 13% bullish. Normally that should mean 87% have sold and the lemon doesn't have much juice left. Major international debacle from Asia or Europe and all bets are off. The lemon will start to look juicy again, but I believe unpredictable events are to be insured against not bet on. Traders were looking for a positive close today to signal a base for a few weeks of rally. It didn't happen, so a climactic sell off could be yet in the cards. I'd like to see a little semi book to bill reaction short attack to get amat down to my 39 where I'll take it in a heartbeat. MT