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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (870)	3/21/2001 11:16:58 PM
From: Lone Ranger	Respond to of 10065

marc, it seems like your last two posts are diametrically opposed. that looks like fear and greed fighting for control. who will win?

To: marc ultra who wrote (870)	3/22/2001 8:40:52 AM
From: Lone Ranger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

marc, wondering what the book to bill ratio will indicate today? due for release soon.

To: marc ultra who wrote (870)	3/23/2001 3:05:15 PM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

Could we be looking at a 1998 type bottom? Some technical analysts, including Ralph Bloch who has been pretty sharp, have been talking about a 1998 type scenario. While this was a broad market event I'll focus on the NASDAQ. A recap of the important price events at that time follows: 7/20/98 - NASDAQ sits at 2014 8/31/98- NASDAQ temporarily bottoms at 1499 down 26% from 7/20/98 9/23/98- NASDAQ reaches 1760 which is a bounce up of 17% from 8/31/98 low 10/8/98- NASDAQ reaches 1419 which is a 19% drop from 9/23/98. This is the big retest and setting of marginal new lows when Bob was screaming you cannot afford to be out of the market for even one day. Ralph Bloch and others have noted technical readings in our current market that reached levels not seen since the 1998 events. Just looking at the price action at the time we can guess we have put in a temporary bottom finally and are now in the technical rally phase. At some point then we may reach a point where a deft exit would be appropriate and the NASDAQ at least will move back down to it's final lows which will look like a test of the lows we have put in but maybe marginally lower. If timing is correct this final low could be the huge buying opportunity, likely in 2002 that is the so called moabo and designates the start of a new cyclical bull market. The percentages of the bounce off the low we hopefully have started could be rather huge given the depths of the NASDAQ bear. Under the 1998 scenario the only ones to get punished the worst will be those who exit in the current area. Those who sit tight likely will go for a round trip riding the big CTR and then riding down to the final test at the bottom with at least a marginal new low followed by a cyclical bull. The caveats in this scenario are this is not 1998. Bob's long term model remained bullish at that time while it is bearish now. We had a bubble burst leading to the current mess which wasn't the case in 1998. It does look like the above scenario is very feasible for the current situation. Recognizing it developing and executing the proper timing moves is something that will be difficult to say the least and we have also learned we need to be cautious on assuming Bob will be right on target in making these moves. Marc