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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JRI who wrote (3705)	3/21/2001 11:13:22 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

JRI, you just have to be amazed by the market's ability to keep people off track. On the surface you wouldn't think it would be that difficult. Just follow the pros example and buy good companies and hold on to them. Think long term. Hold stocks for five to ten years and you'll be ok. If on the surface most money managers truly believed that why is it so difficult to make money in the markets. Even if you're daytrading the volatility has wiped out the vast majority of traders. Which tells me the majority are not buying and holding (probably smart). I must admit that I am in complete awe of the this aspect of the market. The ease in which it confounds people is a big part of its allure. You see a big selloff at the end of the day and ten minutes into the close the S&P futures are up five points. Or how about a stock that closes up for the day but in the context of the bigger picture that up day is setting the price up for a selloff. I am rambling on like this because I was thinking earlier about those semis, the glue that's keeping managers optimistic here. Everyday they are highlighted for their ability to hold their prices. But what are we really seeing. It's still early and I could be wrong but I would bet money that we have witnessed a huge distribution campaign waged against the street. Trust me we will have our answer before months end. Anyway, regarding the rest of the market. We are going lower yet. Someone said that the last leg is the most painful. I would agree with that 100%. The charts are still pointing lower across the board. Just look at AMZN. It's still hanging around 10. It can only go sideways so long. My call was for major 1st qtr weakness if those lows did not hold and that's what we're getting. Here is a post that I wrote, almost a month old now. Check out my forecast for the major avgs. I know we're not there yet but we still have another seven days worth of trading. Anything could happen. Message 15409303 Good trading.

To: JRI who wrote (3705)	3/22/2001 12:58:39 AM
From: Chris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52237

5 yr trendline coming up

To: JRI who wrote (3705)	3/22/2001 2:02:59 AM
From: marketing1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

anybody have any info (source a website)on book to bill history? It might be very interesting to look at the relationship of the book to bill vs price on SOX on a chart if in any way possible. Also can somebody clue me in as to how to determine if a rally is primarily short covering ?(in real time not after the fact). Is there an indicator to watch? I can't see any way that the B2B tomorrow can be a positive story. So I am thinking that assessing the reaction is critical. I am thinking this could be a replay of Tues disappointment. Denial then HOPE then sell on news. OTOH the market is technically very oversold by various measurements- (full moon or whatever <ggg>) and a certain % of the money on the sidelines might need to find a home before 3/31. So if the news is bad (not sure how to measure this)and the market disregards it, then we got an intermediate bottom and a tradeable rally. I been waiting for a long time. TIA regards, marketing