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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (7379)	3/21/2001 10:46:43 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

don't frown average down, now i don't want to interupt the bull lovefest here, but i hate when misinformation is spread to support one's position. for everybody's edification - jt's information is incorrect, the last time there was an ursa/nova inversion was in october 99 - not 98, that was after a whopping 10% drop of the july 99 high, now after over 20% drop we finally have an inversion, at the 98 bottom the ratio of bear funds and cash, was 3 times the level of bull funds and sector funds. and btw, gfy -g- again

To: marginmike who wrote (7379)	3/22/2001 12:08:12 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

every level you said was critical has broken, why would you go long? I am looking for a hard counter-trend bounce into the end of the month and NDX is going to lead the way. This is one of several reasons... Putting these numbers into the moving averages of the Arms Index, it put the 5-day Nasdaq at 1.88 and the 10-day at 1.87. On the NYSE the 5-day is now at 1.64 and the 10-day is at 1.58. Those numbers are, I think, very important at this time. I usually consider a level over 1.25 on the NYSE as being very oversold, and a signal that a buy point is being approached. A level of 1.50 or higher is extremely rare, and has always been seen in the vicinity of a major market low. In the 32 years since the data has been available to calculate the Arms Index there have only been six other times when it has moved to a level over 1.50. The most significant was at the October 1987 panic. The next biggest oversold was in October 1997, at the time of the Russian meltdown. The others were in 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1982. Each was at or very close to the market low of that period. The message seems clear. We are seeing oversold levels that are rare, and have always, in the past, pinpointed a time to be aggressively buying stocks. It is hard to go against the crowd when the bearishness is so widespread. Being contrary at important turning points has always been extremely difficult, but extremely profitable. We seem to be at, or near, such a point. Richard W. Arms, Jr. www.armsinsider.com ************************* Best Regards, J.T.