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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Asymmetric who wrote (5781)	3/22/2001 8:33:34 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Hi Peter, I agree, it's not been easy for anyone to call this market, let alone individual stocks. The one thing I've noticed about the Value Line Worst list is that of the 41 stocks shown, if any one sector shows up with more than about 6 to 8 representatives, it's usually a sign that about 13 weeks earlier a major rotation out of that sector started. The list had recently been made up of a significant number of DotComs, but that was less sector rotation and more sector Abolition! Going back to the mid '80s, however, the list has provided a good indicator of what sector has been knocked down the hardest. Not every company from that sector is a good choice to buy, but the sector is a great place to look for new "bottom fishing" investing. To see so many telecomm equip, semis, ISPs and network companies listed together during one week certainly says something important about the last 13 weeks. It takes over a 52% loss in the last 13 weeks just to make the list! The "worst of the worst" was down 90% in that period. Sector rotation seems to work okay during bull markets (as does almost any other investing strategy) but during bear markets, it's like letting the air out of one tire at a time - eventually they're all flat! At this point, I've burnt just about all of my dry powder AIMing at everything in my portfolio. Even my mutual fund holdings are now close to tapped out of cash reserves. Only my energy stocks and mutual fund have excess cash reserve right now (and I've borrowed from those to continue buying other places). So, all my seeds have been planted. Now it's time to sit back and wait for some green sprouts to show. Best regards, Tom