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Strategies & Market Trends : NetCurrents NTCS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Teresa Lo who wrote (6473)	3/21/2001 11:49:54 PM
From: Not_Active	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8925

At the moment I honestly believe that the Fed feels it is on top of the macro hiccups that are occurring, even if they did "cause" them tangently via last years hikes. And, they may be right. Some of the best economic forecasters I know, those with academic reputations and not just Wall Street mouth-pieces, are quietly saying that probability of the U.S. falling into a recession are less than 30% given the data that is known (including privately held data). The problem is that after so many go-go years, a year of slower economic growth, coupled with the markets letting off steam, seems to many with short memories to be a cataclismic collapse instead of just normal business cycle gyrations.